Archive for May, 2008

Fantasy Football Sucks Cause I’m Bad At It

Today I’d like to introduce all of you to a feature I’d like to do a few times a month - my fantasy team in review. For now, an introduction:

I care a lot about fantasy baseball, probably because baseball is #1a on my list of favorite sports (football/futbol/soccer being #1b). Also, it’s freakin’ silly how good I am at fantasy baseball. Yahoo gives me an 88% game performance percentage for fantasy baseball. I don’t know what that means, but I know Jose has a 64% game performance percentage. ¡Comaselo, amigo!

My fellow Shockey Brigaders and I are in two leagues together this year. The league we care about is a head-to-head full keeper league with a minor league system and a salary cap, in it’s first season.

My usual strategy is to spend the bulk of my salary (or the early picks of my draft) on good-hitting infielders and top starting pitchers, and try to put together an outfield that can get hits here and there. This usually results in me finishing top 3 in pitching categories and mid-to-low in hitting categories. Week-to-week, head-to-head I usually lead in most pitching categories, but I only win outright when my outfielders do better than expected.

Here’s a rundown of my team:

Russell Martin, c - Good, expensive catcher.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1b - 15 home runs and 44 RBIs are both 2nd among first basemen, good for a 14th round pick.
Rickie Weeks, 2b - His 7 home runs help at second base, but with a .202 average I doubt he’ll end up being worth $8.
David Wright, 3b - My #1 pick. Not wowed by the season he’s having but certainly nothing to complain about.
Miguel Tejada, ss - Pleasantly surprised. Will probably do worse in the second half.
Manny Ramirez, of - Rough May, but how many of your fantasy players caught a ball and high-fived a fan while smoking a joint and eating a hot dog, and still doubled the guy off first?
Andre Ethier, of - .309/.374/.451 for a $1 player I got after the draft, but certainly not the best 2nd outfielder in our league.
Justin Upton, of - Another Free Agent pickup. Pretty bad all month (.311 slugging %), but I was wooed by PECOTA.
Adam Jones, of - Hasn’t done much so far. Again, PECOTA got me overexcited. But he’s 22 with a lot of potential, so why not.
Carlos Pena, 1b - Hey ‘Los. You hit, like, 75 home runs last year, right? Fine, 4 home runs, 15 RBIs and a .260 batting average in May is probably all I should hope for. But .231/.338/.430 is really bothering me for a guy who costs $22.
Jeremy Hermida, of - Eh.
Brad Hawpe, of - YIKES! .231/.349/.357. Had hopes he’d compliment Manny in the outfield.

Brandon Webb, sp - Worth the $33.
Scott Kazmir, sp - I forgot to start him this week (oops), but I’m happy after 5 starts.
Ben Sheets, sp - An early BABIP around .230 probably wasn’t going to hold up. He’s been regressing to the mean with 36 hits in his last 28.1 innings, but he’s still done pretty well his last couple starts.
Johnny Cueto, sp - I was man-crushing hard on this guy before the season. He’s been, well, not so good. But I won’t give up on him until Dusty Baker goes Prior and Wood on him and Volquez.
Ian Kennedy, sp - UUUUGGGGH! That’s the fantasy owner in me. The Yankees fan has faith he’ll be a good pitcher. But it’s been miserable to watch so far.
Joba Chamberlain, sp/rp - Can’t wait for next week, but one heartbreak is enough for me. If his June looks like Cueto’s April I’ll cry like a little girl.
Mariano Rivera, rp - What’s not to love?
Joakim Soria, rp - 11 saves, 0.56 WHIP… I’ll take it!
Huston Street, rp - I needed some saves. He’s technically my worst closer, but I’m 5th in total saves and fine with that.

So there it is. I’m 82-60-10 - good for 2nd place but just $5 under the salary cap. My pitching is where I want it to be but I’m overachieving a bit offensively (worse total numbers than head-to-head numbers). We’ll see if the offensive downturn continues - and frankly, I expect it to - but if things get really bad through June I’m fine with trying to re-tool for next year.

Most of our readers are probably in one of several leagues I’m in, but what do the rest of you think? Is my pitching good enough to carry me through the season? If my offensive struggles get worse, is it worth it to bail and try to build around the younger outfielders? And how bad is my outfield, anyway???

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Champions League Final Preview — UPDATE

Today marks the pinnacle of professional club soccer - the Champions League Final. This year, for the first time, the Final will feature two English clubs - Chelsea (from London) against Manchester United. United is coming off their second-consecutive championship season in the English Premier League. Chelsea has finished second in back-to-back EPL seasons after winning the two previous titles.

Here to preview the match are the Shockey Brigade’s two resident football/futbol/soccer experts, David and Derek:

Derek’s Preview
Rain is forecast throughout the day and night in Moscow, and factored in with rumors of a poor playing surface, control in the midfield will be crucial. Normally under these circumstances in an all-English affair, my prediction would be 0-0 or 1-0 (essentially something really boring), but these teams know each other well. United will try to open up the game on the wings, which should give Chelsea a chance to control the game through the middle of the pitch. Both teams will take chances, so despite conventional wisdom I don’t expect a conservative match.

Chelsea has the stronger defense while United have the better strike force in Wayne Rooney and Carlos Tevez. The most intriguing matchup to me lies in the midfield, where the Blues have an edge. In terms of controlling the pace and flow of the game, I’ll take Makelele, Lampard and Ballack over Ronaldo, Carrick, Scholes and Park, though Ronaldo will be interesting to watch down the wings on counter attacks.

Ultimately, Chelsea’s defense will be too difficult to beat more than once or twice, their midfield will be able to manage an otherwise sloppy game, and Petr Cech will make us all remember the goaltender he was before he fractured his skull in 2006. For the Reds, Ronaldo might look effective but the Chelsea defense will keep him contained or isolated. On the other side, Didier Drogba’s size, speed and presence will lead to several clear-cut opportunities. If Chelsea can finish them, United will be left chasing the game - something they are unaccustomed to.

Prediction:
Chelsea 2, Manchester United 1

David’s Preview
I’ve got to agree with Derek on this one. I think it is as close to a tossup as one could imagine, and the odds of extra-time must be quite high. One would have to give United the edge in attacking options, but Chelsea’s midfield and defense have a noticeable edge. On top of the weather, one development that could change this is a reported training ground injury to Ashley Cole. He has a solid history of locking down Christiano Ronaldo and if he cannot play today I think the advantage will tilt slightly in ManU’s favor.

The wildcards in this game are the tactics and chemistry of Chelsea. Roman Abramonovich’s experiment of throwing money at the world’s best players has resulted in the evolution of an exciting young team built for the present and future to a disjointed European version of 25 guys-25 cabs. It is an indictment of the team’s current standing that Avram Grant is rumored to be on the hot seat. He inherited a team that was floundering in both the Premiership and Champions League and almost all he has done is win. There have been some notable exceptions, including tactical mistakes in the Carling Cup final and the embarrassing loss to Barnsley in the FA Cup. But in general Grant has created unprecedented success, including the teams win over Liverpool in the Champions League Semi-Final. Prior to that game, Liverpool in Semi-Finals was the white whale for Chelsea under former boss Jose Mourinho. In addition, Grant brought the team back to within two goals from the Premiership title. Yet he has a team where many of the established stars have expressed a desire to play elsewhere next year, and who have publicly feuded on both the training ground and on the field. The team appeared to rally around the death of Frank Lampard’s mother and if this sentiment can be maintained, a historic victory could be in the cards before this wannabe dynasty is blown up.

Manchester United deserved to win the Premiership title as it is a measure of who was the best team from the start of the season until the end, but the Champions League will be decided by Chelsea’s performance. At this point ManU is a relatively known quantity; they can play free flowing soccer, but will likely try and close down the midfield and slow down the game against an opponent such as Chelsea. They have talented enough players to unlock almost any defense, but Chelsea will likely have to make a mistake at this level for it to happen.

Prediction
By locking down the midfield and playing defense to their potential, Chelsea win this one 1-0.

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The No-No

In the wake of Jon Lester’s no hitter I have to wonder at what point his story becomes too good for even Disney to pick up. In the past two years he has had his pro-debut, been a rookie phenom (remember if it hadn’t been for an unprecedented 2006 rookie class which included Justin Verlander, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Liriano and Jered Weaver, Lester could have been a rookie of the year candidate), been diagnosed with a rare form of cancer, overcome the disease, won a deciding World Series Game and has thrown a No-Hitter. Seriously, would you enjoy a movie based on this story line, or you would it be as ridiculous as Rocky boxing in his 60s?

The more practical implication from Lester’s no-hitter is that, combined with his past six starts, he is starting to look like a quality Major League starter. Over his past seven starts he has a 2:1 K:BB ratio and five quality starts. Before this stretch significant questions existed regarding his ability to consistently throw strikes, to keep his pitch count down and base runners off the base path. Lately he has been throwing his fastball for strikes, and his secondary pitches, which include a tantalizing curveball and a filthy cutter, are starting to resemble the quality that his scouting reports always boasted off.

This is not say that Lester is going to be better than Johan Santana. I personally see him as Andy Petite without the steroids. But his success raises some interesting questions about the rumored Johan Santana trades from this off-season. The two options that were discussed centered around Lester or Centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. The Lester trade would have also involved Coco Crisp, and both trades would have included pitching prospect Justin Masterson and infield prospect Jed Lowrie. So far, all five of these players have played significant contributions to the Red Sox this season and all five will cost almost $13 million less than Santana this year. What the Sox are saying with this roster decision is that quality depth and cost-controlled players coming in to their prime are worth as much as an all-star pitcher.

When the trade did not go through a number of writers stated that they were pleased to see Lester and Ellsbury stay because they were our guys, we drafted them, developed them and cheered for them. For many Red Sox fans, myself included, this subjective inclination for the homegrown talent forced them to overlook Johan’s talent and almost certain success in Fenway. Yankees fans did the same thing; the only difference is that their prospects are not as good. The non-trade for Santana displays a constant issue facing fans: we want to win, but we want to do it on our own terms with the players that we come to love.

For better or for worse, this irrational fondness for the hometown team’s prospects has in this case been vindicated. Ellsbury has been solid, Bowden has been dominant in the minors and thrown two gems in the majors, while Lowrie displayed the ability to hit major league pitching. The biggest name going the other way though was and will continue to be Lester. As his performances continue to improve, Boston fans will continuously be reminded of this great story, one that we can both empirically and illogically enjoy. Even if Disney wouldn’t believe it.

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One Trick ‘Toni

Welp.  I was “afk” for a while… and boy howdy did I miss the sweet smell of the keyboard!  I’ve been in a land of no television and one where cell phones exist merely for their florescent glow to light the way below a star-filled night sky.   Luckily, though, one small piece of sporting news happened to reach me while I was in hiding.  Apparently Mike D’Antoni was recently hired by the New York Knicks?  I could be wrong about this, but whilst I was away I had forgoted how to figure that-there fancy interenety dingy, which done come around with all the pictures and words and jibber jabber, and thus have not read anything on the matter as of yet.  But how would I know this if I had no connection to the sports-loving Universe??   I’ll tell you how… I know everything.  Well… that and, I also happened to get an awful feeling in the pit of my stomach.  The same feeling I felt when the Knicks had FINALLY escaped from under the spell of Scott “the dream killer” Layden, only to later find out that Isiah “the nightmare bringer” Thomas had taken his spot.  Yes… Mike D’Antoni is now the head basketball coach of the New York Knickerbockers.  Is anyone else incredibly underwhelmed?  

Let me first start by discussing the current state of The New York Basketball Knicks:

  • They are a squad of 0 discipline
  • They play 0 defense
  • They have 0 toughness
  • There has been 0 stability in the franchise for 6 or 7 years
  • They are a bunch of Prima Donnas whose perceptions of their own skills (and for that matter, their fans’ perceptions of their skills) exceed their actual skills by approximately 212%
  • They are led by Stephon Marbury, Eddy Curry, and Zack Randolph (yikes)

Now Let me discuss what I know of Mike D’Antoni:

  • He has never won a damn thing
  • He has never even made it to the NBA Finals
  • He has had a 2 time MVP (Nash), along with some combination of: the 6th man of the year (Barbosa), the best young talent in the game (Amare), the best big man in the game (Daddy), and the best defensive (and possible best 2-way) player in the game (Marion), as well as a great selection of roll players (Diaw, Grant Hill, Joe Johnson, Raja Bell- among others)
  • He is an offensive genius, but his defensive schemes are nonexistent 
  • He has had great regular season success, accompanied with minimal postseason success
  • He runs a style of basketball that can win many games, but probably will never win a championship

When I put all of these things together, I become exceptionally perplexed and disappointed with the Knick’s choice. The thing about D’Antoni is that he had the absolute best personnel for his system and he still never got it done… never even came all that close to getting it done.  So now, he’s going to come to New York and replace Nash with Crack-bury, Amare with Eddy “The Sizzler” Curry and Marion with…. Quentin Richardson??  Without a complete overhaul of the roster, I just don’t see this working out at all (and while this roster is awful, I was hoping more to ride it out and let contracts expire than for an overhaul- it worked so well when Isiah did it). 

Look, I realize D’Antoni is the sexy choice, and he does have a super awesome ‘stache, but I just don’t see how this is a good move for anyone involved.  In fact, I just took out my crystal ball and I’d like to share with you exactly what I saw: 

Best-case scenario:  The Knicks improve to a semi-respectable franchise (somewhere along the lines of where the Raptors are currently) and hover in mediocrity for the next several years.  Along the way, they get lucky in the lottery and/or free agency. D’Antoni’s system turns Derek Rose into CP3 Redux.  The rule changes affect the league enough that the run-and-gun system works well enough to make the team into a title contender.  Everyone goes home happy and Donnie Walsh is exalted for his foresight.   (Does anyone actually see any of this happening??)  

Worst-case scenario:  The Knicks score a lot of points.  David Lee and Jamal Crawford become fantasy players extraordinaire but the team never wins a thing.  Dolan gets impatient (I know, that’s a little bit of a stretch… but go with me on this) and he forces Walsh’s hand.  The Knicks make a series of trades involving expiring contracts to try to acquire players that will fit Mike’s system.  They fall further into the luxury tax abyss and are left with more players with big contracts that nobody wants.  D’Antoni lasts 2 years before everyone realizes what an awful mistake they’ve made.  Mike takes his severance package all the way to the bank and the rest of us are left chanting “Fire Dolan”…. Aaaahhh now those are the Knicks I know and love. (By the way, this sounds waaaayyyy too possible that I almost want to delete it)  

The bottom line for me on this is that it just seems to send the exact opposite message from what I was hoping they’d do.  I was hoping for patience over rashness.  I was hoping for logic over ticket sales.  I was hoping for a complete culture change that started with one key word sung as 2 harmonious syllables: DE-FENSE (clap clap).  But most of all, I was finally hoping for acknowledgment that this team can not and will not win now.  Maybe I’m wrong, and lord knows I hope I am, but signing a big name coach to an exceptional contract seems more like a “let’s win now” move than a “it’s time to rebuild” move to me.  I don’t know who the right choice for the job would have been, but I’m pretty sure D’Antoni was the #1 wrong choice… and it makes me sad.

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