May200810
Written by David
Are you ready for some FJM style criticism of some amazingly stupid analysis from ESPN commentator, and former Mets GM Steve Philips? I am, so lets go.
TRICKS OF THE TRADE
How do you restore a once-proud franchise? Glad you asked.
By Steve Phillips
The Reds haven’t made the playoffs in 13 years, and a slow start this season cost GM Wayne Krivsky his job. So how can new boss Walt Jocketty build a new Big Red Machine?
Baseball Tonight analyst and former Mets GM Steve Phillips has a few ideas.
While his head is kind of in the right place regarding the future of the Reds, he is about to demonstrate an utter failure of understanding of the new baseball economics. In actual fact Steve Philips is about to demonstrate the same knowledge of baseball prospects as you average caller on sports radio.
1. TRADE JUNIOR Yes, Ken Griffey Jr. is one of the few reasons to visit Great American Ball Park, but it’s time to make the tough decisions. Griffey is signed only through this year, with a club option for 2009. As a 10-and-five player, he can veto any deal, but Chicago is a popular destination, so call White Sox GM Ken Williams, who’s tried to get Griffey in the past, and ask for Josh Fields or Carlos Quentin. The Sox have a shot, and Griffey would be huge in Chi-Town. Then call up top prospect Jay Bruce, and put him in center for the next 10 years.
While Griffey’s run at 600 home runs is and will continue to draw fans to the ballpark for the next couple of weeks, the long-term draw for this team will be their three exciting young pitchers Volquez, Cuerto and Bailey, as well as Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and the above mentioned Jay Bruce. Unfortunately for the Reds Griffey does not have enough current value to bring back a player of the caliber of Carlos Quentin. At present Quentin is 25, is costing the White Sox $400,000 this year and is cost controlled for the next four years. Griffey is 13 years older, costs $12.5 million a season and has an OPS 250 points less at this point in the season. Griffey’s numbers will likely trend upwards over the course of the season, and Quentin’s will likely fall off a bit; but Quentin will likely be a better hitter this year and almost certainly will be a better hitter from 2009 and on as he enters his prime.
Ironically, Fields is a bad match for this trade for the opposite reason. In his first full season in the majors in 2007 he had an OPS+ of 101, meaning that he was nothing more than league average. The fact that he had a 35 walks to 125 strike outs last year does not bode well for his future success. Philips is right in that Griffey should be traded and the Reds should be rebuilt around Philips, Votto, Bruce and the young rotation, but what they need to do is target packages of prospects that fill multiple needs on the team and who will be ready to contribute by 2010.
2. DUNN DEAL Use Adam Dunn’s power as a chip to get pitchers. The Reds have a limited budget and an even smaller ballpark, so they must deal for arms and develop them. Dunn is in the last year of his deal, so maximize the return by giving an interested team a 72-hour window to negotiate an extension. Go to the Giants, who need offense to replace Barry Bonds, and ask for Matt Cain. Go to Toronto and request a package that includes Adam Lind and Dustin McGowan or Shawn Marcum. Call Cleveland, which is desperate for bats, and ask for Cliff Lee and one of these three: OF Franklin Gutiérrez and lefties Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey.
Philips again demonstrates a lack of knowledge of minor league systems and player values. Starting with the Cleveland deal. Has anyone heard about Cliff Lee recently? Dude has been sick. Like best pitcher in baseball. Better than Webb, Peavy and Santana right now. Given that Cleveland is struggling to get good pitching from guys like C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, and given Lee’s general awesomeness, there is no way that Cleveland is remotely interested in making any trades for him. The other players, which would be interesting pieces to the puzzle don’t really make a whole lot of sense. While Gutiérrez is their starting left he is a league average outfielde, despite his poor start to the season, and is not good enough to head up a list of players traded for Dunn. Sowers and Laffey are both solid young arms that Cleveland will be needing to keep for the inevitable departure of C.C. Sabathia at the end of the year. Also, Philip’s speculation has missed the point that Dunn really is not a great match for the Indians, as his whole value to an American League team would be as a DH of which Cleveland already has a good one. Cincinnati should likely target an American League contender/quasi-contender with need at the Designated Hitter position, which means Anaheim, Seattle, Toronto, maybe Tampa, and maybe Minnesota.
This means that Steve got at least one of the teams right. Following the cutting of Frank Thomas, Toronto does have a need for a middle of the order bat of which Dunn would fit the bill. A deal involving one of their young outfielders, Adam Lind or Travis Snyder, and a couple of young (read: minor league) arms might get the deal done. But there is no way that Toronto is going to give up McGowan or Marcum, both of whom are in their mid-20s with ERA+’s of 138 and 157, respectively.
The San Francisco trade only makes a modicum of sense if you are taking in to account the fact that Brian Sabean appears to be allergic to rebuilding his team. While his history may suggest that, it appears that the departure of Barry Bonds has convinced Sabean that the Giants need to begin the rebuilding process, but given their current organizational weaknesses they really are not going to be able to compete until 2010 at the earliest, essentially wasting two years of Adam Dunn’s prime and likely $15 million a year. In theory this trade could go through, but I don’t think that Steve Philips should be basing these trades on General Managers acting in their worst possible interests.
Personally, I think that Anaheim is the best match for this trade. Cinnci should ask for Brandon Wood, Jordan Walden and another young arm and that if a trade can not be consummated, the Reds should let Dunn walk and pick up the two draft picks at the end of the year.
3. BYE, BYE BRONSON In 2006, Bronson Arroyo was a great acquisition by Krivsky, but at age 31, and after throwing 656 innings the previous three years, he’s not the same pitcher. Get what you can, and get out from under his contract, because financial flexibility is critical for a small-market franchise. There are plenty of teams dying for starting pitching: Texas, Detroit, Houston, Milwaukee and Baltimore come to mind. After trading Arroyo, bring up Homer Bailey, and give him the ball every fifth day. Scouts think he can be special; let’s see if they’re right.
Steve, once again you kind of got the right idea. There is a high demand for pitching and you might as well get what you can for it if you have it. The point that Steve fails to take in to account is that Texas and Baltimore are essentially in the same position as the Reds and thus will not be looking to take on contracts or to give up young talent. I’m sorry that I really didn’t spend that much time on this one, but I’m just so exicted for the overwhelming stupidity of Philips’ next comment…
4. CALL HANK Have owner Bob Castellini ring Hank Steinbrenner and tell him you’ve got a way to move Joba Chamberlain into the Yankees’ rotation. Offer Jared Burton, who’s whiffing hitters in bunches, and Jeremy Affeldt for Phil Hughes. Sell Burton as Chamberlain’s eighth-inning replacement and Affeldt as the situational lefty the Yanks lack. Throw in Arroyo if they want. Make it an owners deal. Castellini and Hank will love it; GM Brian Cashman will hate it. The bottom line is that Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Vólquez and Hughes would give Cincy four very different looks.
There is so much wrong with this that I don’t know where to start. It reads like he’s trying to write something shocking for the sake of writing something shocking. Either way, I think I’m going to go to list format to keep my thoughts under control:
a. If the Yankees want to move Joba in to the rotation they will find a spot for him. Mike Mussina, whose contract expires at the end of the year, is 39 and throwing an 86 mph fastball; Andy Pettite is off the ‘roids and is basically playing year-to-year at this point. By absolutely no means should the Yankees think they have to get rid of Philip Hughes to put Joba in to the rotation.
b. Do you know why Brian Cashman will hate it? Because its an awful fucking trade! If Hank orchestrates this trade I predict that Cashman quits within 48 hours.
c. Will people give Phil Hughes a chance. Just because a ton of promising young pitchers came in to the majors in 2006 and were successful right away does not mean that that is the norm. The majority of highly-touted young players struggle during their introduction to the major leagues, and in all likely hood this is what has happened to Hughes. As much as I enjoy seeing him getting knocked around Fenway park on Sunday Night Baseball, I do worry about the day that he becomes a legitimate MLB starting pitcher at the front end of the Yankees rotation. While there certainly is the chance that this will never happen, the whole point of developing young pitchers and lots of them is so that they are in your organization when they reach their peak. Either that or you trade them away for premium talent… see the Johan Santana trade discussions. The one thing that you do not do is trade them away at the first sign of trouble following for two middle relievers, even if the Reds concede to throw in Bronson Arroyo.
d. Affeldt and Burton really are nothing more than above average major league relief pitchers. While Burton has struck out an impressive 22 batters in 15 and 2/3 innings this year, his WHIP, a strong indicator of a reliever’s worth is around league average. Affeldt, like Burtin, is striking out batters at an impressive rate, but is doing so well above his career average. Affeldt and Burton will be good tools for the Reds to use at the trading deadline that could get back some strong young players, but to think that they are worth one of the top pitching prospects in baseball is laughable.
From the Reds perspective this would be an incredible return. I mean if the Red Sox could get back Evan Longoria for Julien Tavarez and Manny Delcarman I would be ecstatic. Ultimately it reads liks something that an oblivious fan would write on a message board.
The bottom line here is that the Yankees balked at trading Hughes in the off-season when they could have gotten Johan Santana, the best pitcher in baseball over the past five years, in return. While Hank Steinbrenner is a moron who appears to regret not trading for Santana, he surely recognizes the difference between the best pitcher alive and two above average middle relievers. Then again, as a Red Sox fan I can always hope.
5. SHORT CUT The Reds have a tough decision when Álex González returns from his left-knee injury in a few weeks, because Jeff Keppinger has proved he can play shortstop every day. What to do? Trade utility man Ryan Freel to the Dodgers for Scott Proctor. LA can use a supersub, and Proctor can pitch the eighth inning if Burton is traded. Then Keppinger stays put and González becomes a defensive specialist—one with a lot of value if another club loses its starting shortstop.
This doe not really make any sense. He’s saying that when the Red’s starting shortstop, Alex Gonzalez, comes back from the DL, he should become a defensive specialist, making way for Jeff Keppinger, and that the Reds current super-sub, Ryan Freel, should be traded. But Freel and Gonzalez are completely different players. Gonzalez is an excellent defensive shortstop, while Freel is a jack-of-all-trades guy ready to fit in anywhere. Both have their uses, but I fail to see how one coming back makes the other one expendable.
The other problem with Philips analysis is that Keppinger really has not done anything special this year to unseat Gonzalez. He has been rumored to be solid to date this year, but no GM, least of all Walt Jockerty, will likely be fooled into overestimating his present and future worth. His OPS+ to date is 89, which means that his career role as a backup is likely well placed. He can help out in a pinch, but when called upon to play everyday he is a below average major league player. He likely does not have much trade value, but can be a fill in major league player as the team prepares for its young players to come up. He has not been, and will not be, good enough to change the way that the Reds think about Gonzalez and Freel.
The third problem with this trade proposal is that the Dodgers are not going to trade a useful middle reliever (one that their manager actually trusts, to a fault, nonetheless) for a super-sub. In actual fact they did the opposite last year (with a better super-sub) in order to get Procter.
Steve Philips demonstrates two fundamental problems in this article. The first is that for a former General Manager and as a professional basebll analyst he displays a startling lack of knowledge about baseball players. While Griffey is arguably one of the best players of all time, he is currently 38, declining, and has expressed some hesitation at the though of continuing his career in the long run. To expect to get premium major league talent back in the form of Carlos Quentin is just plain ignorant. To fail to see why the Indians would not give up Cliff Lee, why the Blue Jays wouldn’t give up Marcum or McGowan and why the Yankees wouldn’t give up Phil Hughes is just silly.
The second problem with Philips’ analysis is that while he understands the best course of actions for the Reds is to try and rebuild their team around their excellent young players, he fails to see the effects of trading away the team’s current veteran talent. In so doing, the Reds would essentially relegate themselves to a losing 2008, and probably a losing 2009. Replacing Jared Burton with Scott Proctor is a redundant move that leaves the team back where it started, failing to improve it in the long or short run.
I love coming up with trade proposals, particularly with a team like Cincinnati where they have so many useful chips. But it takes the fun and interest out of it when you’re throwing proposals out there that a video game would not even allow.
Share/Save
Recent Comments