The Final
I’m in London for the final. Only have a few minutes at a computer but I wanted to get my prediction on record.
My prediction is:
Spain
Archive for June, 2008
…If only…
I write this as the second round of the 2008 NBA Draft moves slowly along… Sadly the Knicks have taken Danilo Gallinari, and I can only sit and imagine what it would be like to be a fan of a competent team… to be a fan of a team that knows how to rebuild. And so, I have never been more jealous of the Portland Trail Blazers.
I mean… WOW. I am so impressed by what they’ve done over the past few years. This draft seems like the icing on the cake to push them into the playoffs, and with some experience in years to come, they will be championship contenders no doubt. First of all, this draft was amazing. They drafted Brandon Rush, which I thought was a fantastic pick. While I was watching the draft, my friend and I were discussing what a great fit Rush would be for the Blazers. Sure enough, David Stern comes out and calls the man’s name. Excellent pick by Portland. Except that, five minutes later, they turn around and trade the guy! But wait… there’s more. In doing so, they got a guy, who I think, is even a better fit for them! They traded Rush, along with Jarret Jack and Josh McRoberts for Jerryd Bayless and Ike Diogu. As previously documented on this blog, I think Bayless will be a very good pro. In Arizona guards we trust! Bayless should be a great backcourt mate of Brandon Roy’s for years to come, reecking havoc wherever they go.
They then drafted Darrell Arthur with #27 (via Phoenix). Not only a great value pick, but just a good pick in general. Arthur was possibly the best player on a championship team, and has an array of skills. He could have easily been a top 15 pick in this draft, and the only reason he slipped as far as he did was because of some concerns over the health of his kidneys. After nabbing Joey Dorsey in the second round (who I think will be an excellent energy and defense guy in the NBA), I was, and remain exceptionally jealous of any Portland fan. So basically these are you 2008-2009 Portland Trail Blazers as currently constructed:
PG - Steve Blake - a cheap, serviceable Guard who averaged 9/5 last year.
SG - Brandon Roy - All-star. Stud. Averaged 19/6/5 last year. 23 years old.
SF - Martell Webster- A young (21) up-and-comer. Averaged 11/4 in his 1st year as a starter
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge - Another stud. Just 22 years old. Averaged 18/8 in his 2nd year.
C - Greg Oden - We all know his story. Even if he doesn’t reach the hype… he’ll be good.
Bench:
Jerryd Bayless- Legit scoring PG, will probably be starting 20 games in, if not sooner.
Travis Outlaw - Another young (23) swingman who is interchangeable with Webster. Averaged 13/5 last year.
Channing Frye - A backup big man, just 25, averaged 7/5 in just 17 minutes last year. He can knock down shots.
Joey Dorsey- Should bring toughness. Ben Wallace type.
Darrell Arthur- 20 year old, 6′9″ PF who can shoot, score, rebound and play some defense.
Of all these players… Only Blake and Frye are older than 23. That is a 10 man rotation, not including guys like Ike Diogu and Joel Pryzbilla, who would certainly play on some NBA teams. But what makes this even more amazing is their cap situation. They only have $20 mil commited after next season, and only $7 mil commited the season after that (these numbers will be a little higher once they sign this year’s picks). Which means, in two years from now, they can be big players in free agency when some decent players will be on the market- Lebron, Dirk, Amare, Wade, Carmelo, McGrady, Bosh, Joe Johnson, just to name a few. And, they will have enough money by then to be able to figure out which of these young guys they want to keep, lock them up, and trade the others, or let them go.
This is a franchise that knows what they are doing. I am very, very impressed. And what makes it all the more impressive is that 5 years ago, 3 years ago, this franchise was an absolute mess. They were the Jail Blazers, and had no chemistry, bad contracts, and little hope for the future. They took advantage of teams like the Knicks to take bad contracts off their hands, and were patient and competent in the draft… and now here they are. I don’t see any reason why this team won’t be winning championships in 3-5 years…. if only…..
…OK, now back to crying about Gallinari.
A Brit on Baseball
Buster Olney wrote today about how after being swept by the San Francisco Giants it is time for the Cleveland Indians to shut up shop for the year and trade away C.C. Sabathia. Olney writes that given the poor form of their offense so far, and the risk that Sabathia’s performance turn’s sour, its in the best interest of Cleveland to make the trade as soon as possible. I could not disagree with this sentiment any more.
First of all, save for his first four stars of the season, Sabathia has arguably been the best pitcher in the American League this year. Based on his performance for the past year and a half (the playoffs not withstanding) Cleveland does not have to worry about Sabathia’s value plummeting all of a sudden.
Secondly, Cleveland is not out of the AL Central race yet. While they are in last place, the eight game deficit that they are facing is the smallest of any major league cellar dweller. The teams that they are chasing all have significant deficiencies. If things continue on their current path, Cleveland will obviously not make the playoffs, but with half the season to play, and severely flawed teams in front of it, there is a significant chance that things start to go right for them. This is a team that is currently missing its two top hitters, and while they are not expected back for a while (Hafner a couple of weeks, Victor Martinez a month and a half) if the current roster could string together a few wins over the next three wins the team would be able to get back in to the race in time for their returns to be relevant.
To be clear, if three weeks pass and the Indians do not improve in the standings I think they should begin to plan for the future, but lets not forget that this was a team that was one poor third base coach decision from going to the world series last year. Given the amount of players performing below their career norms, it is not out of the question for things to start turning around.
If the Indians do trade Sabathia, I would like to humbly suggest a partner. The Milwaukee Brewers have the minor league prospects to get a deal done in order to make a serious World Series push in a weak National League, while maintaining their organizational depth for future years. At present the Brewers have four players in the majors/high minors who play the same two positions: Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Matt Laporta and Matt Gamel. Laporta and Gamel reportedly have major league ready bats at present but are blocked by the teams incumbent fist baseman and left fielder. With the understanding that they will not re-sign Sabathia this off-season, the Brewers should offer Gamel and two younger high-ceiling prospects for Sabathia. The deal makes sense for Cleveland because they are getting a major league ready, potentially impact bat, and two younger players to stock up their farm system. With Fausto Carmona, Cliff Lee, Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, Jake Westbrook and Adam Miller they have enough starting pitching to build their rotation around in 2009. And with the return to form of a couple of their role players such as Casey Blake, Ryan Garko or Jhonny Peralta, they could have a solid lineup led by Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez, Gamel and Hafner.
For the Brewers this would make them the favorites in the National League to go on an extended 2008 playoff run (the team has won 20 of its last 28, and held up respectably against the American League this month with a 6-3 record) while planting the seeds for future success. According to reports, the team will not be able to retain Ben Sheets this off-season, and if they trade for C.C. Sabathia they will certainly lose him as well. The resulting four 1st round draft picks would be enough to rebuild their farm system. They then could trade Prince Fielder for a young stud arm, possible Matt Cain, Shawn Marcum, Joe Saunders or David Price and call up Laporta. The Brewers would have a rotation headed by the Fielder return, Yovanni Gallardo and Manny Parra and a lineup led by Ryan Braun, Matt Laporta and Corey Hart.
At the same time, the Brewers are a team that just came up with this unbelievable moronic idea for its Class-A pitchers, so its probably too much to ask for them to be forward thinking as they approach the trade deadline.
Double or Nothing
Well I really couldn’t have been more wrong about the quarterfinals, so I’ll avoid any caveats about betting on my predictions. On a quick side-note, how much do you think UEFA officials are pushing for a Spain-Germany finals? Enough that they might go Tim Donaghy on us?… I’m just saying.
Germany v. Turkey
While the stereotype of the Germans is similar to that of the Italians, that they are content to sit back and let the game come to them, they are in fact a significantly more exciting team to watch. The Germans, play with more pace, endeavor and flare than the Italians, all the while maintaining their disciplined system that minimizes oppositions’ opportunities. Dare I say it, but with players such as Mikel Ballack, Lukas Podolski, Schweini and Mario Gomez, they are actually quite entertaining to watch.
With their three dramatic come from behind victories, the Turks are clearly the story of the tournament to date. Is it possible that they can pull out another unlikely victory? Certainly, but without Volkan Demirel and Belozoqlu Emre, and a mounting injury crisis, I think that this is the end of the line for the Turks.
On a side note, Spolitical has an interesting take on the effects that Turkey’s run in the tournament could have on its attempts for future integration in to Europe. While I do believe that subtle political changes can be brought about by success on the soccer field, I don’t think that it is going to cause the racist and ignorant elements of Europe to change their opinions on admitting a Muslim country in to their club
Spain v. Russia
Let it be known that while I predicted that the Italians would win the quarterfinals match against Spain I didn’t want them to. I acknowledge that almost every country is responsible for diving and gamesmanship today, even some of the English do it, but there is something particularly reprehensible and irritating about the way the Italians do it.
While the Russians have been formidable so far, in particular in their well-deserved victory over the Dutch, they do not match up well against the Spanish. Spain has been given trouble so far by teams with physical presences in the box. Roman Pavluchenko has the ability to be the key man in this game; however, Spain has the pace to counter Andrei Arshavin the key figure in brining down the Dutch. In their first game, the Spanish beat the Russians 4-1 on the strength of three David Villa goals. The Russians have improved since that point, but expect Villa, Fernando Torres and David Silva to have impressive perfomances in a Spanish victory.
But I was 1-3 in the quarterfinals so what do I know.
And just so noone forgets, Christiano Ronaldo is a ponce:
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