A Brit on Baseball
Buster Olney wrote today about how after being swept by the San Francisco Giants it is time for the Cleveland Indians to shut up shop for the year and trade away C.C. Sabathia. Olney writes that given the poor form of their offense so far, and the risk that Sabathia’s performance turn’s sour, its in the best interest of Cleveland to make the trade as soon as possible. I could not disagree with this sentiment any more.
First of all, save for his first four stars of the season, Sabathia has arguably been the best pitcher in the American League this year. Based on his performance for the past year and a half (the playoffs not withstanding) Cleveland does not have to worry about Sabathia’s value plummeting all of a sudden.
Secondly, Cleveland is not out of the AL Central race yet. While they are in last place, the eight game deficit that they are facing is the smallest of any major league cellar dweller. The teams that they are chasing all have significant deficiencies. If things continue on their current path, Cleveland will obviously not make the playoffs, but with half the season to play, and severely flawed teams in front of it, there is a significant chance that things start to go right for them. This is a team that is currently missing its two top hitters, and while they are not expected back for a while (Hafner a couple of weeks, Victor Martinez a month and a half) if the current roster could string together a few wins over the next three wins the team would be able to get back in to the race in time for their returns to be relevant.
To be clear, if three weeks pass and the Indians do not improve in the standings I think they should begin to plan for the future, but lets not forget that this was a team that was one poor third base coach decision from going to the world series last year. Given the amount of players performing below their career norms, it is not out of the question for things to start turning around.
If the Indians do trade Sabathia, I would like to humbly suggest a partner. The Milwaukee Brewers have the minor league prospects to get a deal done in order to make a serious World Series push in a weak National League, while maintaining their organizational depth for future years. At present the Brewers have four players in the majors/high minors who play the same two positions: Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Matt Laporta and Matt Gamel. Laporta and Gamel reportedly have major league ready bats at present but are blocked by the teams incumbent fist baseman and left fielder. With the understanding that they will not re-sign Sabathia this off-season, the Brewers should offer Gamel and two younger high-ceiling prospects for Sabathia. The deal makes sense for Cleveland because they are getting a major league ready, potentially impact bat, and two younger players to stock up their farm system. With Fausto Carmona, Cliff Lee, Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, Jake Westbrook and Adam Miller they have enough starting pitching to build their rotation around in 2009. And with the return to form of a couple of their role players such as Casey Blake, Ryan Garko or Jhonny Peralta, they could have a solid lineup led by Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez, Gamel and Hafner.
For the Brewers this would make them the favorites in the National League to go on an extended 2008 playoff run (the team has won 20 of its last 28, and held up respectably against the American League this month with a 6-3 record) while planting the seeds for future success. According to reports, the team will not be able to retain Ben Sheets this off-season, and if they trade for C.C. Sabathia they will certainly lose him as well. The resulting four 1st round draft picks would be enough to rebuild their farm system. They then could trade Prince Fielder for a young stud arm, possible Matt Cain, Shawn Marcum, Joe Saunders or David Price and call up Laporta. The Brewers would have a rotation headed by the Fielder return, Yovanni Gallardo and Manny Parra and a lineup led by Ryan Braun, Matt Laporta and Corey Hart.
At the same time, the Brewers are a team that just came up with this unbelievable moronic idea for its Class-A pitchers, so its probably too much to ask for them to be forward thinking as they approach the trade deadline.
David on June 27th, 2008
interesting article on buyers v. sellers: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7718