MLB Preview: AL East
Disclaimer: Much of this was written before the disastrous start of the Red Sox, so forgive me if this seems overly optimistic at this point.
The American League East is bar-none the best division in baseball this year, and its not that close. The division has the three best teams in the game jockeying for position as well as two teams that will likely prove to be tough to beat on a nightly basis. The defending American League Champion Rays return much of their team from last year, and have the luxury of adding top-class bats and arms from their highly rated farm system. The Boston Red Sox have the deepest rotation in all of baseball with the ability to trot out nine major starters this year. In addition, their offense will likely not experience the catastrophic injuries that it sustained last year. The New York Yankees spent almost half a billion dollars this off-season rebuilding their pitching staff and adding the best available free agent bat. The Toronto Blue Jays will likely have a much improved offense, and a significantly worse rotation, while the Baltimore Orioles are finally stock piling young talent and have a very interesting your outfield.
Boston Red Sox (96-66, Division Champs)
A week ago I felt that the Red Sox did not have the same type of questions as their main competitors in the division; I may stand corrected at this point. Coming into the season there was some concern that David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Jed Lowrie would not be able to overcome their injuries from last year, significantly weakening the team’s offense. I tentatively stand by the idea that these players will be able to produce if healthy and that that last year all three hitters performed to expectations until having theirs season’s derailed by injuries. After a tough start to the season, Ortiz was starting to figure things out when he hurt his wrist and when he came back from that injury it appeared as if he was back until a knee injury sapped his production at the end of the season and in the playoffs. Mike Lowell had an OPS of .867 through the first half of last season but his production stagnated as he dealt with a torn rotator cuff in his hip. Jed Lowrie came up and was making a strong impression until he broke his wrist affecting his performance for the rest of the season (the result of which was Alex Cora as the starting SS in the ALCS’ Game 7). The tentative assumption here is that all three of these players will have play an important part in the Red Sox run for the pennant after coming back from these injuries; however, the early returns are not good as Lowell has an OPS of .556, Ortiz has yet to be get an extra-base hit and Lowrie has been put on the DL after complaining of a sore wrist. The Red Sox strength, although you wouldn’t know it after watching the first eight games of the season, lies in their starting pitching depth; if Dice-K’s complaints of arm fatigue persist Boston can call on Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden or Justin Masterson, and later in the summer they will have John Smoltz. Their bullpen has the potential to be best in the league with five legitimate 8th or 9th inning pitchers (Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, Masterson and Takashi Saito). If the Ortiz or Lowell are unable to make it back from their injuries the Sox will be able to call up to prospect Lars Anderson or use some of its surplus pitching to add a bat in a trade. I’m not ready to panic yet, but I might be able to later in the afternoon.
Team MVP: Kevin Youkilis
Player to Watch: Jacoby Ellsbury
Tampa Bay Rays (94-68, Wild Card Champs)
Other than Nate Silver everyone was shocked to see the Tampa Bay Rays have their first competitive season last year. The team had strong pitching, strong defense and an average offense. While the defense likely will at best remain the same, both the offense and the pitching have the ability to improve this year. A year of development for Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton, the return from injury for Carl Crawford and a permanent DH in Pat Burrell suggest that the team’s offense should be improved from its 16th place finish last year. The Ray’s starting rotation was strong last year primarily due to health, and while it would be unrealistic to think that they will be as charmed as they were last year, the team has the depth in its system to manage. Tampa can safely expect Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza to improve on their 2008 performances, and if extra arms are needed they have super prospects David Price and Wade Davis. This surplus of pitching means that, like Boston, the Rays will be in prime position to make a trade should the need arise. Last year the team outperformed their Pythagorean record by 4 wins, the Rays 2009 Pythagorean could be as good as their 2008 overall record and they still might now win as many games.
Team MVP: Evan Longoria
Player to Watch: Carl Crawford
New York Yankees (92-60)
This is probably some wishful thinking on my part, but the Yankees projections ranged from 89 to 100 wins. In my opinion, despite having some phenomenal potential, the Yankees have more questions than either Boston or Tampa: How consistent can A.J. Burnett be? How healthy is Chien-Ming Wang? How will the bottom half of their lineup produce? Just how bad will their defense be? Can their middle relief get the game to Mo? Can Joba last as a starting pitcher? While, both of the Yankees’ main competitors have questions, both the Rays and Red Sox appear to have more definitive answers. The top of the lineup is good position with Jeter, Damon, Tex and A-Rod. Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano will be solid if inconsistent contributors but Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada are aging and the team will likely not feature a capable centerfielder until Austin Jackson is ready. Burnett and Sabathia do get a lot of strikeout’s which should minimize the difficulties of the Yankees defense where Jeter has been described as the worst defender in baseball, Cano is erratic, Posada can not throw to second and neither Xavier Nady or Swisher are above average. While the team spent millions of dollars on its pitching staff there is no guarantee that everything will go well. Despite showing moments of dominance throughout his career, Burnett has a career ERA+ of 111, and last year when he was so good that the Yankees gave him an $83 million contract, his ERA+ was only 105. Joba Chamberlain has demonstrated that he has the ability to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, however, he has yet to show that his body is capable of holding up for more than a couple of starts. Furthermore, Wang, the team’s former ace, was out for much of last year and has yet to demonstrate that he is fully recovered. This is probably the best Yankees team since 2001, but they never faced competition like the 09 Rays or Red Sox when they were winning Divisions and World Series’.
Team MVP: C.C. Sabathia
Player to Watch: Alex Rodriguez
Toronto Blue Jays (78-84)
Despite getting off to a 6-3 start the Blue Jays are cursed by inhabiting a division in which they cannot properly compete. Toronto must overcome not only two teams that have significantly higher budgets but they must do it while overcoming the obstacle of the Canadian dollar. Last year the Blue Jays were far and away the best pitching team in baseball allowing only 610 runs; however, the team also included an anemic offense. This year the offense will likely be better with full seasons from Adam Lind and Travis Snider while the pitching will be worse given the losses of Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan to injuries, and A.J. Burnett to free agency. 2010 will likely be a high point for the Blue Jays if their pitching can remain healthy but it still will likely not be enough to be competitive in the AL East.
Team MVP: Roy Halladay
Player to Watch: Travis Snider
Baltimore Orioles (77-85)
After years of Peter Angelos’s meddling with the team it appears that his new President Andy McPhail has the team on the right track. The team is improving at both the major and minor-league levels; the only question is can they improve enough to compete with New York, Boston and Tampa? The Orioles have two of the games best young outfielders in Nick Markakis and Adam Jones, one of the game’s best second baseman in Brian Roberts and the game’s best prospect in catcher Matt Weiters. Combined with solid veterans such as Aubrey Huff, Ty Wigginton and Melvin Mora, as well as the savvy acquisition of Felix Pie, the Orioles’s offense will make the team a spoiler threat in every game they play in this year. The problem for the Orioles is their lack of pitching at the Major League level as their rotation includes Jeremy Guthrie and retreads like Mark Hendrickson and Adam Eaton. The hope for the Orioles comes in their farm system, which includes several top pitching prospects like Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrrieta who all project to be in the team’s starting rotation by the middle of next season.
Team MVP: Nick Markakis
Player to Watch: Matt Wieters
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