MLB Preview: AL Central
The American League Central finished slightly upside-down last year. The two picks to contend, Detroit and Cleveland, got off to awful starts. While Cleveland recovered to finish .500, Detroit did not, falling below Kansas City. Minnesota and Chicago, both of whom were predicted to finish on the outside looking in had to play a tiebreaker to determine the division champion. Kansas City finished outside of last place primarily due to the failures of Detroit.
Cleveland Indians (89-63, Division Champs)
The Cleveland Indians appear to be closer to the team that went to game 7 of the ALCS in 2007 than the one that got off to such a disappointing start that they had to trade C.C. Sabathia. The Indians have one of the five best players in baseball in Grady Sizemore, the reigning AL Cy Young holder in Cliff Lee, an underrated closer in Kerry Wood and a number of question marks. Is Fausto Carmona the pitcher he was in 2007 when he finished fourth in the Cy Young balloting? Or the pitcher he was in 2008 when he had an WHIP of 1.624? Can Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner return to health? Can Matt Laporta have an impact on their lineup? Can Lee come anywhere close to last year’s dominant performance? Can young pitchers like Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, Anthony Reyes or Adam Miller step into the rotation? If the answer to two or three of these questions is yes, the Indians will be the favorite to make the playoffs out of the Central.
Team MVP: Grady Sizemore
Player to Watch: Fausto Carmona
Detroit Tigers (85-77)
Listening to the preseason fanfare Detroit was possibly the most disappointing team in the majors last year; however, their problems are much deeper than the rash of injuries experienced by the Indians. A number of their top hitters, such as Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen and Brandon Inge do not have defined positions; as a result their defense is awful. While they have talent in their rotation, there are serious doubts about the future of Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman. To make it worse, it appears that Dave Dombrowski has brought up uber-prospect Rick Porcello at the age of 20 in a panic move to keep his job. All of that being said, there is a lot of upside to the Tigers: their lineup will rake, and if Verlander can return to form the rotation will have a solid one-two with him and Armando Gallaraga. While there is upside to the team there will ultimately be too many holes for them to be truly competitive.
Team MVP: Miguel Cabrera
Player to Watch: Rick Porcello
Minnesota Twins (84-68)
Because it’s the Twins I will not be surprised if they end up winning the division, particularly because of the questions surrounding Cleveland and Detroit. The Twins have a deep young rotation with Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey but their lineup will likely be their undoing, particularly if Joe Mauer misses significant time. Outside of Mauer and Justin Morneau there are not enough impact bats in the lineup (Denard Span was the only other regular in the lineup to have an above average offensive season last year) to put runs on the board. These issues will likely preclude the Twins from competing this year; however, with their pitching and defense you can never truly count them out.
Team MVP: Joe Mauer
Player to Watch: Carlos Gomez
Kansas City Royals (74-88)
Kansas City has not made the playoffs since winning the World Series in 1985, and shows little sign of progress on their quest to again be relevant. At present they are struggling to get the most out of their young talent. Alex Gordon, the team’s supposed savior has struggled to live up to expectations, and Billy Butler has not been given enough opportunities. The team has a legitimate Cy Young contender in Zack Greinke and a bullpen ace in Joakim Soria. While developing these players and minor league talent such as Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmar, Daniel Cortes, Tim Melville and Kila Ka’aihue is the key to the future, if the Royals want to be contenders again they need to find ways to add better supplemental pieces than Mike Jacobs (2008 OBP: .299) or Jose Guillen (2008 OPS: 738).
Team MVP: Zach Grienke
Player to Watch: Alex Gordon
Chicago White Sox (73-89)
In looking into the White Sox I was surprised to read so many negative reviews of the team. After having breakout years from John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez, the team appears to have a strong young core to go with veterans such as Jim Thome, Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye. Looking a little closer one will find that Floyd and Ramirez are serious regression candidates (Floyd benefited from strong defense a year ago, and Ramirez’s approach at the plate is reportedly awful), and there are some black holes in the lineup, primarily at second and third base and centerfield where Josh Fields and Brian Anderson have failed to live up to expectations, and where little can be expected from future utility man Christ Getz. If Floyd does regress there are few pitchers the White Sox can rely on for quality innings beyond Danks and Mark Buerhle. The White Sox do have some upside but the safe bet is for them to struggle and for Ozzie Guillen to once again amaze us with his stupidity.
Team MVP: Carlos Quentin
Player to Watch: Alexie Ramirez
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