MLB Preview: NL East
The National League East, home of the defending World Series champions, has come down to the wire for the past two seasons. In both years the collapse of the New York Mets has allowed the Phillies to get into the post-season. Despite having a number of issues, the Mets look to have answered their biggest question surrounding the team for the past two years: how do we stop blowing games? The Phillies did very little to improve their team following their October success while the Braves revamped their starting rotation. Florida is a trendy pick to compete this year, but its lack of offense beyond Hanley Ramirez makes this highly unlikely. The Washington Nationals… nevermind.
New York Mets (88-74, Division Champs)
The Mets have arguably four of baseball’s top fifteen players in the game with Jose Reyes, David Wright, Johan Santana and Carlos Beltran but they have been unable to make the playoffs the past two years. In signing Francisco Rodriguez and trading for J.J. Putz they hope to have fixed their bullpen which was their Achilles heal during their two embarrassing collapses (hopefully the Mets don’t get caught up in K-Rod’s gaudy save numbers last year and realize that Putz is the better pitchers). Where the Mets could run into trouble is in their rotation. Obviously Santana is one of the best pitchers in baseball, Mike Pelfry was a revelation last year, John Maine is decent, but Oliver Perez is horrendously erratic and Livan Hernandez is just bad. Jonathan Niese could provide some help from the minors, but other than that there does not appear to be any relief to what is a questionable group. Another problem for the Mets is that there are a number of issues with their lineup including two black holes at 2nd base and catcher, and questions about Daniel Murphy’s ability to be an everyday player. Despite these problems the Mets have so much top-end talent that it is hard to see them not making the playoffs this year.
Team MVP: Jose Reyes
Player to Watch: J.J. Putz
Atlanta Braves (86-76)
I’ll probably live to regret this decision, but I like the Braves to finish second this year. There are some questions about their ability to score runs, particularly from the outfield where Jordan Schafer, Jeff Francouer and Garrett Anderson are all question marks. At the same time the Braves have a significantly better rotations than either New York or Philadelphia. Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Jair Jurrjens are better than anyone on either of those teams not named Santana or Hamels. While the outfield offense leaves a lot to be desired, the infield is fairly solid, particularly if Casey Kotchman reverts back to his 2007 form. Brian McCann is one of the best players in the game that nobody talks about, and Chipper Jones, when healthy, will be one of the best hitters in the game. One other thing that Atlanta has going for them that neither the Mets or Phillies do is minor league talent, such as Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward, Gorkys Hernandez and the aforementioned Schafer, that can help the team either directly or through a trade.
Team MVP: Brian McCann
Player to Watch: Jeff Francouer
Philadelphia Phillies (85-77)
Did I just pick the defending World Series champs to finish third? Yes I did. While Philly had a great run last year, their pitching staff cannot possibly repeat its performance, the lineup will likely be slightly worse and they have very little ammunition to add to their roster. Cole Hamels is about as important a player as any in the league as the Phillies have so little depth in their starting rotation. Brett Myers, their opening day starter was sent down to the minors last year, their game 2 starter is 46 years old, and their game 3 starter had a 1.40 WHIP and only 5.1 strikeouts per nine innings. If Hamels can remain as durable as he was last year the rest of the rotation is still below average. The strength of the Phillies roster is their lineup as Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez are as solid as any nucleus in baseball (outside of the Mets). The problem for the Phillies is that their offense will likely not be as good as it was a year ago: Utley is coming back from a tough hip injury, despite large home run numbers Ryan Howard’s production has been regressing since winning the MVP award, Raul Ibanez is similar to Pat Burrell, but is three years older and likely offer no improvement (side note: my vote for the second worst transaction of the off-season is Philly letting Burrell go to Tampa Bay for 2 years $16 million dollars while signing Ibanez for three years $30 million) and Jason Werth will be making his first season as an everyday player at the age of 30. My roommate may not talk to be for a while after this prediction, but as the Kevin Butler, Director of Game Accuracy for MLB 09, says to Dustin Pedroia: “its called integrity.”
Team MVP: Chase Utley
Player to Watch: Cole Hamels
Florida Marlins (76-86)
The Marlins are another trendy dark horse pick after the team went 84-77 last year. The team’s young rotation of Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez and Andrew Miller is a reason to think that the Marlins will be competitive; however, a particularly weak lineup outside of Hanley Ramirez will prevent the team from living up to these expectations. Of particular note for the Marlins was the trade with Washington for Emilio Bonifacio and two marginal prospects. Both Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen were superfluous to the Marlins and should have been traded, but Florida failed to properly maximize their assets. Bonifacio will start the season as the team’s leadoff hitter despite having a career .300 on-base-percentage and complete inability to hit lefthanders. The Marlins have some promising young positions players in Cameron Maybin, Logan Morrison, Mike Stanton and Matt Dominguez; however, it is unlikely that any of them will have a significant impact on the Marlins fortunes this year.
Team MVP: Hanley Ramirez
Player to Watch: Cameron Maybin
Washington Nationals (74-88)
Despite the fact that the Nationals will pick first overall in the 2009 draft and that they will likely finish in last place again this year there are starting to be some signs of optimism. For the first time since moving from Montreal the team will likely not have an awful lineup. Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes are a trendy picks to have breakout seasons, Josh Willingham has a career OPS+ of 117 (although it is a bit disconcerting neither he nor Dukes will be in the starting lineup on opening day), Ryan Zimmerman is a good hitter when healthy and Adam Dunn is the biggest home run threat the team has had since Vlad left. While the hitting will finally be competitive, the pitching will be seriously overmatched with John Lannan, Scott Olsen, Daniel Cabrera, Shairon Martis and Jordan Zimmerman. One thing for Nats fans to keep an eye on is Stephen Strasbourg who offers some potential hope for the rotation’s future.
Team MVP: Lastings Milledge
Player to Watch: Elijah Dukes
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