Disclaimer: Much of this was written before the disastrous start of the Red Sox, so forgive me if this seems overly optimistic at this point.

The American League East is bar-none the best division in baseball this year, and its not that close.  The division has the three best teams in the game jockeying for position as well as two teams that will likely prove to be tough to beat on a nightly basis.  The defending American League Champion Rays return much of their team from last year, and have the luxury of adding top-class bats and arms from their highly rated farm system.  The Boston Red Sox have the deepest rotation in all of baseball with the ability to trot out nine major starters this year.  In addition, their offense will likely not experience the catastrophic injuries that it sustained last year.  The New York Yankees spent almost half a billion dollars this off-season rebuilding their pitching staff and adding the best available free agent bat.  The Toronto Blue Jays will likely have a much improved offense, and a significantly worse rotation, while the Baltimore Orioles are finally stock piling young talent and have a very interesting your outfield.

Boston Red Sox (96-66, Division Champs)

A week ago I felt that the Red Sox did not have the same type of questions as their main competitors in the division; I may stand corrected at this point.  Coming into the season there was some concern that David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Jed Lowrie would not be able to overcome their injuries from last year, significantly weakening the team’s offense. I tentatively stand by the idea that these players will be able to produce if healthy and that that last year all three hitters performed to expectations until having theirs season’s derailed by injuries.  After a tough start to the season, Ortiz was starting to figure things out when he hurt his wrist and when he came back from that injury it appeared as if he was back until a knee injury sapped his production at the end of the season and in the playoffs.  Mike Lowell had an OPS of .867 through the first half of last season but his production stagnated as he dealt with a torn rotator cuff in his hip.  Jed Lowrie came up and was making a strong impression until he broke his wrist affecting his performance for the rest of the season (the result of which was Alex Cora as the starting SS in the ALCS’ Game 7).  The tentative assumption here is that all three of these players will have play an important part in the Red Sox run for the pennant after coming back from these injuries; however, the early returns are not good as Lowell has an OPS of .556, Ortiz has yet to be get an extra-base hit and Lowrie has been put on the DL after complaining of a sore wrist.  The Red Sox strength, although you wouldn’t know it after watching the first eight games of the season, lies in their starting pitching depth; if Dice-K’s complaints of arm fatigue persist Boston can call on Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden or Justin Masterson, and later in the summer they will have John Smoltz.  Their bullpen has the potential to be best in the league with five legitimate 8th or 9th inning pitchers (Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, Masterson and Takashi Saito).   If the Ortiz or Lowell are unable to make it back from their injuries the Sox will be able to call up to prospect Lars Anderson or use some of its surplus pitching to add a bat in a trade. I’m not ready to panic yet, but I might be able to later in the afternoon.

Team MVP: Kevin Youkilis
Player to Watch: Jacoby Ellsbury

Tampa Bay Rays (94-68, Wild Card Champs)

Other than Nate Silver everyone was shocked to see the Tampa Bay Rays have their first competitive season last year.  The team had strong pitching, strong defense and an average offense.  While the defense likely will at best remain the same, both the offense and the pitching have the ability to improve this year. A year of development for Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton, the return from injury for Carl Crawford and a permanent DH in Pat Burrell suggest that the team’s offense should be improved from its 16th place finish last year.  The Ray’s starting rotation was strong last year primarily due to health, and while it would be unrealistic to think that they will be as charmed as they were last year, the team has the depth in its system to manage.  Tampa can safely expect Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza to improve on their 2008 performances, and if extra arms are needed they have super prospects David Price and Wade Davis.  This surplus of pitching means that, like Boston, the Rays will be in prime position to make a trade should the need arise.  Last year the team outperformed their Pythagorean record by 4 wins, the Rays 2009 Pythagorean could be as good as their 2008 overall record and they still might now win as many games.

Team MVP: Evan Longoria
Player to Watch: Carl Crawford

New York Yankees (92-60)

This is probably some wishful thinking on my part, but the Yankees projections ranged from 89 to 100 wins. In my opinion, despite having some phenomenal potential, the Yankees have more questions than either Boston or Tampa: How consistent can A.J. Burnett be? How healthy is Chien-Ming Wang? How will the bottom half of their lineup produce?  Just how bad will their defense be?  Can their middle relief get the game to Mo? Can Joba last as a starting pitcher? While, both of the Yankees’ main competitors have questions, both the Rays and Red Sox appear to have more definitive answers.  The top of the lineup is good position with Jeter, Damon, Tex and A-Rod. Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano will be solid if inconsistent contributors but Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada are aging and the team will likely not feature a capable centerfielder until Austin Jackson is ready. Burnett and Sabathia do get a lot of strikeout’s which should minimize the difficulties of the Yankees defense where Jeter has been described as the worst defender in baseball, Cano is erratic, Posada can not throw to second and neither Xavier Nady or Swisher are above average.  While the team spent millions of dollars on its pitching staff there is no guarantee that everything will go well.  Despite showing moments of dominance throughout his career, Burnett has a career ERA+ of 111, and last year when he was so good that the Yankees gave him an $83 million contract, his ERA+ was only 105.  Joba Chamberlain has demonstrated that he has the ability to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, however, he has yet to show that his body is capable of holding up for more than a couple of starts.  Furthermore, Wang, the team’s former ace, was out for much of last year and has yet to demonstrate that he is fully recovered.  This is probably the best Yankees team since 2001, but they never faced competition like the 09 Rays or Red Sox when they were winning Divisions and World Series’.

Team MVP: C.C. Sabathia
Player to Watch: Alex Rodriguez

Toronto Blue Jays (78-84)

Despite getting off to a 6-3 start the Blue Jays are cursed by inhabiting a division in which they cannot properly compete.  Toronto must overcome not only two teams that have significantly higher budgets but they must do it while overcoming the obstacle of the Canadian dollar.  Last year the Blue Jays were far and away the best pitching team in baseball allowing only 610 runs; however, the team also included an anemic offense. This year the offense will likely be better with full seasons from Adam Lind and Travis Snider while the pitching will be worse given the losses of Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan to injuries, and A.J. Burnett to free agency.  2010 will likely be a high point for the Blue Jays if their pitching can remain healthy but it still will likely not be enough to be competitive in the AL East.

Team MVP: Roy Halladay
Player to Watch: Travis Snider

Baltimore Orioles (77-85)

After years of Peter Angelos’s meddling with the team it appears that his new President Andy McPhail has the team on the right track.  The team is improving at both the major and minor-league levels; the only question is can they improve enough to compete with New York, Boston and Tampa?  The Orioles have two of the games best young outfielders in Nick Markakis and Adam Jones, one of the game’s best second baseman in Brian Roberts and the game’s best prospect in catcher Matt Weiters.  Combined with solid veterans such as Aubrey Huff, Ty Wigginton and Melvin Mora, as well as the savvy acquisition of Felix Pie, the Orioles’s offense will make the team a spoiler threat in every game they play in this year.  The problem for the Orioles is their lack of pitching at the Major League level as their rotation includes Jeremy Guthrie and retreads like Mark Hendrickson and Adam Eaton.  The hope for the Orioles comes in their farm system, which includes several top pitching prospects like Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrrieta who all project to be in the team’s starting rotation by the middle of next season.

Team MVP: Nick Markakis
Player to Watch: Matt Wieters

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The National League East, home of the defending World Series champions, has come down to the wire for the past two seasons.  In both years the collapse of the New York Mets has allowed the Phillies to get into the post-season.  Despite having a number of issues, the Mets look to have answered their biggest question surrounding the team for the past two years: how do we stop blowing games? The Phillies did very little to improve their team following their October success while the Braves revamped their starting rotation.  Florida is a trendy pick to compete this year, but its lack of offense beyond Hanley Ramirez makes this highly unlikely. The Washington Nationals… nevermind.

New York Mets (88-74, Division Champs)

The Mets have arguably four of baseball’s top fifteen players in the game with Jose Reyes, David Wright, Johan Santana and Carlos Beltran but they have been unable to make the playoffs the past two years.  In signing Francisco Rodriguez and trading for J.J. Putz they hope to have fixed their bullpen which was their Achilles heal during their two embarrassing collapses (hopefully the Mets don’t get caught up in K-Rod’s gaudy save numbers last year and realize that Putz is the better pitchers).  Where the Mets could run into trouble is in their rotation.  Obviously Santana is one of the best pitchers in baseball, Mike Pelfry was a revelation last year,  John Maine is decent, but Oliver Perez is horrendously erratic and Livan Hernandez is just bad.  Jonathan Niese could provide some help from the minors, but other than that there does not appear to be any relief to what is a questionable group.  Another problem for the Mets is that there are a number of issues with their lineup including two black holes at 2nd base and catcher, and questions about Daniel Murphy’s ability to be an everyday player.  Despite these problems the Mets have so much top-end talent that it is hard to see them not making the playoffs this year.

Team MVP: Jose Reyes
Player to Watch: J.J. Putz

Atlanta Braves (86-76)

I’ll probably live to regret this decision, but I like the Braves to finish second this year.  There are some questions about their ability to score runs, particularly from the outfield where Jordan Schafer, Jeff Francouer and Garrett Anderson are all question marks.  At the same time the Braves have a significantly better rotations than either New York or Philadelphia.  Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Jair Jurrjens are better than anyone on either of those teams not named Santana or Hamels.  While the outfield offense leaves a lot to be desired, the infield is fairly solid, particularly if Casey Kotchman reverts back to his 2007 form.  Brian McCann is one of the best players in the game that nobody talks about, and Chipper Jones, when healthy, will be one of the best hitters in the game.  One other thing that Atlanta has going for them that neither the Mets or Phillies do is minor league talent, such as Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward, Gorkys Hernandez and the aforementioned Schafer, that can help the team either directly or through a trade.

Team MVP: Brian McCann
Player to Watch: Jeff Francouer

Philadelphia Phillies (85-77)

Did I just pick the defending World Series champs to finish third? Yes I did.  While Philly had a great run last year, their pitching staff cannot possibly repeat its performance, the lineup will likely be slightly worse and they have very little ammunition to add to their roster.  Cole Hamels is about as important a player as any in the league as the Phillies have so little depth in their starting rotation.  Brett Myers, their opening day starter was sent down to the minors last year, their game 2 starter is 46 years old, and their game 3 starter had a 1.40 WHIP and only 5.1 strikeouts per nine innings.  If Hamels can remain as durable as he was last year the rest of the rotation is still below average.  The strength of the Phillies roster is their lineup as Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez are as solid as any nucleus in baseball (outside of the Mets).  The problem for the Phillies is that their offense will likely not be as good as it was a year ago: Utley is coming back from a tough hip injury, despite large home run numbers Ryan Howard’s production has been regressing since winning the MVP award, Raul Ibanez is similar to Pat Burrell, but is three years older and likely offer no improvement (side note: my vote for the second worst transaction of the off-season is Philly letting Burrell go to Tampa Bay for 2 years $16 million dollars while signing Ibanez for three years $30 million) and Jason Werth will be making his first season as an everyday player at the age of 30.  My roommate may not talk to be for a while after this prediction, but as the Kevin Butler, Director of Game Accuracy for MLB 09, says to Dustin Pedroia: “its called integrity.”

Team MVP: Chase Utley
Player to Watch: Cole Hamels

Florida Marlins (76-86)

The Marlins are another trendy dark horse pick after the team went 84-77 last year.  The team’s young rotation of Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez and Andrew Miller is a reason to think that the Marlins will be competitive; however, a particularly weak lineup outside of Hanley Ramirez will prevent the team from living up to these expectations.  Of particular note for the Marlins was the trade with Washington for Emilio Bonifacio and two marginal prospects.  Both Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen were superfluous to the Marlins and should have been traded, but Florida failed to properly maximize their assets.  Bonifacio will start the season as the team’s leadoff hitter despite having a career .300 on-base-percentage and complete inability to hit lefthanders. The Marlins have some promising young positions players in Cameron Maybin, Logan Morrison, Mike Stanton and Matt Dominguez; however, it is unlikely that any of them will have a significant impact on the Marlins fortunes this year.

Team MVP: Hanley Ramirez
Player to Watch: Cameron Maybin

Washington Nationals (74-88)

Despite the fact that the Nationals will pick first overall in the 2009 draft and that they will likely finish in last place again this year there are starting to be some signs of optimism.  For the first time since moving from Montreal the team  will likely not have an awful lineup.  Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes are a trendy picks to have breakout seasons, Josh Willingham has a career OPS+ of 117 (although it is a bit disconcerting neither he nor Dukes will be in the starting lineup on opening day), Ryan Zimmerman is a good hitter when healthy and Adam Dunn is the biggest home run threat the team has had since Vlad left.  While the hitting will finally be competitive, the pitching will be seriously overmatched with John Lannan, Scott Olsen, Daniel Cabrera, Shairon Martis and Jordan Zimmerman.  One thing for Nats fans to keep an eye on is Stephen Strasbourg who offers some potential hope for the rotation’s future.

Team MVP: Lastings Milledge
Player to Watch: Elijah Dukes

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The American League Central finished slightly upside-down last year.  The two picks to contend, Detroit and Cleveland, got off to awful starts.  While Cleveland recovered to finish .500, Detroit did not, falling below Kansas City. Minnesota and Chicago, both of whom were predicted to finish on the outside looking in had to play a tiebreaker to determine the division champion.  Kansas City finished outside of last place primarily due to the failures of Detroit.

Cleveland Indians (89-63, Division Champs)

The Cleveland Indians appear to be closer to the team that went to game 7 of the ALCS in 2007 than the one that got off to such a disappointing start that they had to trade C.C. Sabathia.  The Indians have one of the five best players in baseball in Grady Sizemore, the reigning AL Cy Young holder in Cliff Lee, an underrated closer in Kerry Wood and a number of question marks. Is Fausto Carmona the pitcher he was in 2007 when he finished fourth in the Cy Young balloting? Or the pitcher he was in 2008 when he had an WHIP of 1.624?  Can Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner return to health? Can Matt Laporta have an impact on their lineup? Can Lee come anywhere close to last year’s dominant performance? Can young pitchers like Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, Anthony Reyes or Adam Miller step into the rotation?  If the answer to two or three of these questions is yes, the Indians will be the favorite to make the playoffs out of the Central.

Team MVP: Grady Sizemore
Player to Watch: Fausto Carmona

Detroit Tigers (85-77)

Listening to the preseason fanfare Detroit was possibly the most disappointing team in the majors last year; however, their problems are much deeper than the rash of injuries experienced by the Indians.  A number of their top hitters, such as Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen and Brandon Inge do not have defined positions; as a result their defense is awful.  While they have talent in their rotation, there are serious doubts about the future of Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman.  To make it worse, it appears that Dave Dombrowski has brought up uber-prospect Rick Porcello at the age of 20 in a panic move to keep his job. All of that being said, there is a lot of upside to the Tigers: their lineup will rake, and if Verlander can return to form the rotation will have a solid one-two with him and Armando Gallaraga.  While there is upside to the team there will ultimately be too many holes for them to be truly competitive.

Team MVP: Miguel Cabrera
Player to Watch: Rick Porcello

Minnesota Twins (84-68)

Because it’s the Twins I will not be surprised if they end up winning the division, particularly because of the questions surrounding Cleveland and Detroit.  The Twins have a deep young rotation with Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey but their lineup will likely be their undoing, particularly if Joe Mauer misses significant time.  Outside of Mauer and Justin Morneau there are not enough impact bats in the lineup (Denard Span was the only other regular in the lineup to have an above average offensive season last year) to put runs on the board.  These issues will likely preclude the Twins from competing this year; however, with their pitching and defense you can never truly count them out.

Team MVP: Joe Mauer
Player to Watch: Carlos Gomez

Kansas City Royals (74-88)

Kansas City has not made the playoffs since winning the World Series in 1985, and shows little sign of progress on their quest to again be relevant.  At present they are struggling to get the most out of their young talent.  Alex Gordon, the team’s supposed savior has struggled to live up to expectations, and Billy Butler has not been given enough opportunities. The team has a legitimate Cy Young contender in Zack Greinke and a bullpen ace in Joakim Soria.  While developing these players and minor league talent such as Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmar, Daniel Cortes, Tim Melville and Kila Ka’aihue is the key to the future, if the Royals want to be contenders again they need to find ways to add better supplemental pieces than Mike Jacobs (2008 OBP: .299) or Jose Guillen (2008 OPS: 738).

Team MVP: Zach Grienke
Player to Watch: Alex Gordon

Chicago White Sox (73-89)

In looking into the White Sox I was surprised to read so many negative reviews of the team.  After having breakout years from John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez, the team appears to have a strong young core to go with veterans such as Jim Thome, Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye.  Looking a little closer one will find that Floyd and Ramirez are serious regression candidates (Floyd benefited from strong defense a year ago, and Ramirez’s approach at the plate is reportedly awful), and there are some black holes in the lineup, primarily at second and third base and centerfield where Josh Fields and Brian Anderson have failed to live up to expectations, and where little can be expected from future utility man Christ Getz.  If Floyd does regress there are few pitchers the White Sox can rely on for quality innings beyond Danks and Mark Buerhle. The White Sox do have some upside but the safe bet is for them to struggle and for Ozzie Guillen to once again amaze us with his stupidity.

Team MVP: Carlos Quentin
Player to Watch: Alexie Ramirez

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While it has a number of frustratingly poor franchises, the National League Central has some very interesting teams to keep track off.  The Chicago Cubs are probably the best bet for a 90+ win team in the National League, and Milwaukee, St. Louis and possibly Cincinnati are contenders for second place and potentially a wild card birth. Houston and Pittsburgh? Not really worth your time.

Chicago Cubs (93-59, Division Champs)

Cubs fans have a right to complain about their fate in the playoffs last year as they were the best team in the National League over the course of the season but ran in to a hot Dodgers team.  While the Cubs’ off-season, at best, left them back where they finished last year, their talent level is still significantly higher than that of their competitors in the National League, particularly in the Central.  A middle of the lineup with Aramsi Ramirez, Govany Soto, Derek Lee and Alfonso Soriano is about as good as it gets.  And if Milton Bradley’s foray back into the outfield does not result in significant time on the DL, it will be even more formidable.  Despite some injury concerns, with Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden, the rotation, which also includes Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly, will be as good as any in the National League.  And as long as Kevin Gregg does not become the bullpen ace, they can expect solid relief pitching as well.

Team MVP: Geovany Soto
Player to Watch:  Milton Bradley

Milwaukee Brewers (84-78)

After trading for C.C. Sabathia last year the Brewers beat out the Mets and Phillies for the Wild Card, their first playoff appearance in 26 years.  This year the team essentially loses its best two pitchers in Sabathia and Ben Sheets, but still returns a formidable offense featuring Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, J.J. Hardy, Corey Hart and potentially Rickie Weeks.  The Brewers rotation will not set the world alight, but if Yovani Gallardo can step into the roll of an ace, then the rest of the rotation (Dave Bush, Manny Parra, Jeff Suppan) might be good enough for the team to push for a Wild Card spot.  One other thing that the Brewers have going for them is their impact talent on the farm; Mat Gamel, Angel Salome and Alcides Escobar  could all make major contributions this year.

Team MVP: Ryan Braun
Player to Watch: Mat Gamel

St. Louis Cardinals (83-79)

Any time you have Albert Pujols on your team you have a chance.  Combine with some career years from players like Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel and you have the reason for the Cardinals unexpected significance last year.  The team should see a significant boost to its rotation with the return of Chris Carpenter and a potentially healthy Adam Wainwright.  And Brett Wallace and Colby Rasmus are two impact bats waiting to be called up to help the big club at 3B and Centerfield, respectively; however, there just is not enough complimentary talent on this roster to see them truly competing for the Division or the Wild Card.

Team MVP: Albert Pujols
Player to Watch: Chris Carpenter

Cincinnati Reds (81-81)

Cincinnati has become somewhat of a vogue sleeper pick this year.  While there is a lot to like about the team’s development with Brandon Phillips along with young players such as Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Edison Volquez and Johnny Cueto, there are a few too many question marks about the team’s role players to trust their position as a contender.  Expect Aaron Harang to bounce back and for Bronson Arroyo and Micah Owings to fill out a strong rotation; however, the team is relying on too many at-bats from Willy Taveras, Jerry Hairston and Alex Gonzalez to be truly competitive.  In addition to this the team is being run by Dusty Baker who can be counted on to ruin the career of one of the team’s young starters before the All Star Break, and continue to rationalize Taveras’ .331 career OBP in the lead-off spot … because he’s fast.

Team MVP: Joey Votto
Player to Wach: Jay Bruce

Houston Astros (68-94)

Houston has been trading away their future for years now, both in trades for over the hill players and in failing to sign its draft picks. 2009 will be the year that the results of these failed policies will finally manifest themselves.  On paper the Astros should be competitive with premium talent like Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence and Roy Oswalt and a payroll that is consistently around $90 million; however, the complimentary talent is significantly below average and the farm system is non-existent.  While the Astros farm was no great shakes at the end of 2007, much of their talent was sent to Baltimore and Arizona for Miguel Tejada and Jose Valverde, respectively. It will likely be a long time before the Astros will be competing for anything other than top draft picks.

Team MVP: Lance Berkman
Player to Watch: Hunter Pence

Pittsburgh Pirates (64-98)

The Pirates have been possibly the worst MLB franchise for the past decade and a half, and while the team looks to be making some steps in the right direction, there is not enough talent on the major or minor league rosters to see them breaking their 16 year playoff drought any time soon.  Nate Mclouth and Ryan Doumit are the only major league regulars who could start on a contending team.  There was some hope for the pitching staff in 2008, but Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelany and Matt Capps all demonstrated that they were unable to fulfill their 2007 promise.  The hope for Pittsburgh’s future is their prospects, and they have some good ones in Pedro Alvares, Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabatta and Brad Lincoln.  While Andy Laroche has been an enigma for the past two years, putting up huge numbers in the minor leagues but being unable to transition his development to the majors, he has the potential to be a solid third baseman.

Team MVP: Ryan Doumit
Player to Watch: Andy Laroche

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