The American League East is bar-none the best division in baseball this year, and its not that close.  The division has the three best teams in the game jockeying for position as well as two teams that will likely prove to be tough to beat on a nightly basis.  The defending American League Champion Rays return much of their team from last year, and have the luxury of adding top-class bats and arms from their highly rated farm system.  The Boston Red Sox have the deepest rotation in all of baseball with the ability to trot out nine major starters this year.  In addition, their offense will likely not experience the catastrophic injuries that it sustained last year.  The New York Yankees spent almost half a billion dollars this off-season rebuilding their pitching staff and adding the best available free agent bat.  The Toronto Blue Jays will likely have a much improved offense, and a significantly worse rotation, while the Baltimore Orioles are finally stock piling young talent and have a very interesting your outfield.

Boston Red Sox (96-66, Division Champs)

A week ago I felt that the Red Sox did not have the same type of questions as their main competitors in the division; I may stand corrected at this point.  Coming into the season there was some concern that David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Jed Lowrie would not be able to overcome their injuries from last year, significantly weakening the team’s offense. I tentatively stand by the idea that these players will be able to produce if healthy and that that last year all three hitters performed to expectations until having theirs season’s derailed by injuries.  After a tough start to the season, Ortiz was starting to figure things out when he hurt his wrist and when he came back from that injury it appeared as if he was back until a knee injury sapped his production at the end of the season and in the playoffs.  Mike Lowell had an OPS of .867 through the first half of last season but his production stagnated as he dealt with a torn rotator cuff in his hip.  Jed Lowrie came up and was making a strong impression until he broke his wrist affecting his performance for the rest of the season (the result of which was Alex Cora as the starting SS in the ALCS’ Game 7).  The tentative assumption here is that all three of these players will have play an important part in the Red Sox run for the pennant after coming back from these injuries; however, the early returns are not good as Lowell has an OPS of .556, Ortiz has yet to be get an extra-base hit and Lowrie has been put on the DL after complaining of a sore wrist.  The Red Sox strength, although you wouldn’t know it after watching the first eight games of the season, lies in their starting pitching depth; if Dice-K’s complaints of arm fatigue persist Boston can call on Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden or Justin Masterson, and later in the summer they will have John Smoltz.  Their bullpen has the potential to be best in the league with five legitimate 8th or 9th inning pitchers (Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, Masterson and Takashi Saito).   If the Ortiz or Lowell are unable to make it back from their injuries the Sox will be able to call up to prospect Lars Anderson or use some of its surplus pitching to add a bat in a trade. I’m not ready to panic yet, but I might be able to later in the afternoon.

Team MVP: Kevin Youkilis
Player to Watch: Jacoby Ellsbury

Tampa Bay Rays (94-68, Wild Card Champs)

Other than Nate Silver everyone was shocked to see the Tampa Bay Rays have their first competitive season last year.  The team had strong pitching, strong defense and an average offense.  While the defense likely will at best remain the same, both the offense and the pitching have the ability to improve this year. A year of development for Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton, the return from injury for Carl Crawford and a permanent DH in Pat Burrell suggest that the team’s offense should be improved from its 16th place finish last year.  The Ray’s starting rotation was strong last year primarily due to health, and while it would be unrealistic to think that they will be as charmed as they were last year, the team has the depth in its system to manage.  Tampa can safely expect Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza to improve on their 2008 performances, and if extra arms are needed they have super prospects David Price and Wade Davis.  This surplus of pitching means that, like Boston, the Rays will be in prime position to make a trade should the need arise.  Last year the team outperformed their Pythagorean record by 4 wins, the Rays 2009 Pythagorean could be as good as their 2008 overall record and they still might now win as many games.

Team MVP: Evan Longoria
Player to Watch: Carl Crawford

New York Yankees (92-60)

This is probably some wishful thinking on my part, but the Yankees projections ranged from 89 to 100 wins. In my opinion, despite having some phenomenal potential, the Yankees have more questions than either Boston or Tampa: How consistent can A.J. Burnett be? How healthy is Chien-Ming Wang? How will the bottom half of their lineup produce?  Just how bad will their defense be?  Can their middle relief get the game to Mo? Can Joba last as a starting pitcher? While, both of the Yankees’ main competitors have questions, both the Rays and Red Sox appear to have more definitive answers.  The top of the lineup is good position with Jeter, Damon, Tex and A-Rod. Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano will be solid if inconsistent contributors but Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada are aging and the team will likely not feature a capable centerfielder until Austin Jackson is ready. Burnett and Sabathia do get a lot of strikeout’s which should minimize the difficulties of the Yankees defense where Jeter has been described as the worst defender in baseball, Cano is erratic, Posada can not throw to second and neither Xavier Nady or Swisher are above average.  While the team spent millions of dollars on its pitching staff there is no guarantee that everything will go well.  Despite showing moments of dominance throughout his career, Burnett has a career ERA+ of 111, and last year when he was so good that the Yankees gave him an $83 million contract, his ERA+ was only 105.  Joba Chamberlain has demonstrated that he has the ability to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, however, he has yet to show that his body is capable of holding up for more than a couple of starts.  Furthermore, Wang, the team’s former ace, was out for much of last year and has yet to demonstrate that he is fully recovered.  This is probably the best Yankees team since 2001, but they never faced competition like the 09 Rays or Red Sox when they were winning Divisions and World Series’.

Team MVP: C.C. Sabathia
Player to Watch: Alex Rodriguez

Toronto Blue Jays (78-84)

Despite getting off to a 6-3 start the Blue Jays are cursed by inhabiting a division in which they cannot properly compete.  Toronto must overcome not only two teams that have significantly higher budgets but they must do it while overcoming the obstacle of the Canadian dollar.  Last year the Blue Jays were far and away the best pitching team in baseball allowing only 610 runs; however, the team also included an anemic offense. This year the offense will likely be better with full seasons from Adam Lind and Travis Snider while the pitching will be worse given the losses of Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan to injuries, and A.J. Burnett to free agency.  2010 will likely be a high point for the Blue Jays if their pitching can remain healthy but it still will likely not be enough to be competitive in the AL East.

Team MVP: Roy Halladay
Player to Watch: Travis Snider

Baltimore Orioles (77-85)

After years of Peter Angelos’s meddling with the team it appears that his new President Andy McPhail has the team on the right track.  The team is improving at both the major and minor-league levels; the only question is can they improve enough to compete with New York, Boston and Tampa?  The Orioles have two of the games best young outfielders in Nick Markakis and Adam Jones, one of the game’s best second baseman in Brian Roberts and the game’s best prospect in catcher Matt Weiters.  Combined with solid veterans such as Aubrey Huff, Ty Wigginton and Melvin Mora, as well as the savvy acquisition of Felix Pie, the Orioles’s offense will make the team a spoiler threat in every game they play in this year.  The problem for the Orioles is their lack of pitching at the Major League level as their rotation includes Jeremy Guthrie and retreads like Mark Hendrickson and Adam Eaton.  The hope for the Orioles comes in their farm system, which includes several top pitching prospects like Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrrieta who all project to be in the team’s starting rotation by the middle of next season.

Team MVP: Nick Markakis
Player to Watch: Matt Wieters

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New York Mets (88-74, Division Champs)

The Mets have arguably four of baseball’s top fifteen players in the game with Jose Reyes, David Wright, Johan Santana and Carlos Beltran but they have been unable to make the playoffs the past two years.  In signing Francisco Rodriguez and trading for J.J. Putz they hope to have fixed their bullpen which was their Achilles heal during their two embarrassing collapses (hopefully the Mets don’t get caught up in K-Rod’s gaudy save numbers last year and realize that Putz is the better pitchers).  Where the Mets could run into trouble is in their rotation.  Obviously Santana is one of the best pitchers in baseball, Mike Pelfry was a revelation last year,  John Maine is decent, but Oliver Perez is horrendously erratic and Livan Hernandez is just bad.  Jonathan Niese could provide some help from the minors, but other than that there does not appear to be any relief to what is a questionable group.  Another problem for the Mets is that there are a number of issues with their lineup including two black holes at 2nd base and catcher, and questions about Daniel Murphy’s ability to be an everyday player.  Despite these problems the Mets have so much top-end talent that it is hard to see them not making the playoffs this year.

Team MVP: Jose Reyes
Player to Watch: J.J. Putz

Atlanta Braves (86-76)

I’ll probably live to regret this decision, but I like the Braves to finish second this year.  There are some questions about their ability to score runs, particularly from the outfield where Jordan Schafer, Jeff Francouer and Garrett Anderson are all question marks.  At the same time the Braves have a significantly better rotations than either New York or Philadelphia.  Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Jair Jurrjens are better than anyone on either of those teams not named Santana or Hamels.  While the outfield offense leaves a lot to be desired, the infield is fairly solid, particularly if Casey Kotchman reverts back to his 2007 form.  Brian McCann is one of the best players in the game that nobody talks about, and Chipper Jones, when healthy, will be one of the best hitters in the game.  One other thing that Atlanta has going for them that neither the Mets or Phillies do is minor league talent, such as Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward, Gorkys Hernandez and the aforementioned Schafer, that can help the team either directly or through a trade.

Team MVP: Brian McCann
Player to Watch: Jeff Francouer

Philadelphia Phillies (85-77)

Did I just pick the defending World Series champs to finish third? Yes I did.  While Philly had a great run last year, their pitching staff cannot possibly repeat its performance, the lineup will likely be slightly worse and they have very little ammunition to add to their roster.  Cole Hamels is about as important a player as any in the league as the Phillies have so little depth in their starting rotation.  Brett Myers, their opening day starter was sent down to the minors last year, their game 2 starter is 46 years old, and their game 3 starter had a 1.40 WHIP and only 5.1 strikeouts per nine innings.  If Hamels can remain as durable as he was last year the rest of the rotation is still below average.  The strength of the Phillies roster is their lineup as Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez are as solid as any nucleus in baseball (outside of the Mets).  The problem for the Phillies is that their offense will likely not be as good as it was a year ago: Utley is coming back from a tough hip injury, despite large home run numbers Ryan Howard’s production has been regressing since winning the MVP award, Raul Ibanez is similar to Pat Burrell, but is three years older and likely offer no improvement (side note: my vote for the second worst transaction of the off-season is Philly letting Burrell go to Tampa Bay for 2 years $16 million dollars while signing Ibanez for three years $30 million) and Jason Werth will be making his first season as an everyday player at the age of 30.  My roommate may not talk to be for a while after this prediction, but as the Kevin Butler, Director of Game Accuracy for MLB 09, says to Dustin Pedroia: “its called integrity.”

Team MVP: Chase Utley
Player to Watch: Cole Hamels

Florida Marlins (76-86)

The Marlins are another trendy dark horse pick after the team went 84-77 last year.  The team’s young rotation of Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez and Andrew Miller is a reason to think that the Marlins will be competitive; however, a particularly weak lineup outside of Hanley Ramirez will prevent the team from living up to these expectations.  Of particular note for the Marlins was the trade with Washington for Emilio Bonifacio and two marginal prospects.  Both Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen were superfluous to the Marlins and should have been traded, but Florida failed to properly maximize their assets.  Bonifacio will start the season as the team’s leadoff hitter despite having a career .300 on-base-percentage and complete inability to hit lefthanders. The Marlins have some promising young positions players in Cameron Maybin, Logan Morrison, Mike Stanton and Matt Dominguez; however, it is unlikely that any of them will have a significant impact on the Marlins fortunes this year.

Team MVP: Hanley Ramirez
Player to Watch: Cameron Maybin

Washington Nationals (74-88)

Despite the fact that the Nationals will pick first overall in the 2009 draft and that they will likely finish in last place again this year there are starting to be some signs of optimism.  For the first time since moving from Montreal the team  will likely not have an awful lineup.  Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes are a trendy picks to have breakout seasons, Josh Willingham has a career OPS+ of 117 (although it is a bit disconcerting neither he nor Dukes will be in the starting lineup on opening day), Ryan Zimmerman is a good hitter when healthy and Adam Dunn is the biggest home run threat the team has had since Vlad left.  While the hitting will finally be competitive, the pitching will be seriously overmatched with John Lannan, Scott Olsen, Daniel Cabrera, Shairon Martis and Jordan Zimmerman.  One thing for Nats fans to keep an eye on is Stephen Strasbourg who offers some potential hope for the rotation’s future.

Team MVP: Lastings Milledge
Player to Watch: Elijah Dukes

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Cleveland Indians (89-63, Division Champs)

The Cleveland Indians appear to be closer to the team that went to game 7 of the ALCS in 2007 than the one that got off to such a disappointing start that they had to trade C.C. Sabathia.  The Indians have one of the five best players in baseball in Grady Sizemore, the reigning AL Cy Young holder in Cliff Lee, an underrated closer in Kerry Wood and a number of question marks. Is Fausto Carmona the pitcher he was in 2007 when he finished fourth in the Cy Young balloting? Or the pitcher he was in 2008 when he had an WHIP of 1.624?  Can Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner return to health? Can Matt Laporta have an impact on their lineup? Can Lee come anywhere close to last year’s dominant performance? Can young pitchers like Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, Anthony Reyes or Adam Miller step into the rotation?  If the answer to two or three of these questions is yes, the Indians will be the favorite to make the playoffs out of the Central.

Team MVP: Grady Sizemore
Player to Watch: Fausto Carmona

Detroit Tigers (85-77)

Listening to the preseason fanfare Detroit was possibly the most disappointing team in the majors last year; however, their problems are much deeper than the rash of injuries experienced by the Indians.  A number of their top hitters, such as Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen and Brandon Inge do not have defined positions; as a result their defense is awful.  While they have talent in their rotation, there are serious doubts about the future of Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman.  To make it worse, it appears that Dave Dombrowski has brought up uber-prospect Rick Porcello at the age of 20 in a panic move to keep his job. All of that being said, there is a lot of upside to the Tigers: their lineup will rake, and if Verlander can return to form the rotation will have a solid one-two with him and Armando Gallaraga.  While there is upside to the team there will ultimately be too many holes for them to be truly competitive.

Team MVP: Miguel Cabrera
Player to Watch: Rick Porcello

Minnesota Twins (84-68)

Because it’s the Twins I will not be surprised if they end up winning the division, particularly because of the questions surrounding Cleveland and Detroit.  The Twins have a deep young rotation with Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey but their lineup will likely be their undoing, particularly if Joe Mauer misses significant time.  Outside of Mauer and Justin Morneau there are not enough impact bats in the lineup (Denard Span was the only other regular in the lineup to have an above average offensive season last year) to put runs on the board.  These issues will likely preclude the Twins from competing this year; however, with their pitching and defense you can never truly count them out.

Team MVP: Joe Mauer
Player to Watch: Carlos Gomez

Kansas City Royals (74-88)

Kansas City has not made the playoffs since winning the World Series in 1985, and shows little sign of progress on their quest to again be relevant.  At present they are struggling to get the most out of their young talent.  Alex Gordon, the team’s supposed savior has struggled to live up to expectations, and Billy Butler has not been given enough opportunities. The team has a legitimate Cy Young contender in Zack Greinke and a bullpen ace in Joakim Soria.  While developing these players and minor league talent such as Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmar, Daniel Cortes, Tim Melville and Kila Ka’aihue is the key to the future, if the Royals want to be contenders again they need to find ways to add better supplemental pieces than Mike Jacobs (2008 OBP: .299) or Jose Guillen (2008 OPS: 738).

Team MVP: Zach Grienke
Player to Watch: Alex Gordon

Chicago White Sox (73-89)

In looking into the White Sox I was surprised to read so many negative reviews of the team.  After having breakout years from John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez, the team appears to have a strong young core to go with veterans such as Jim Thome, Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye.  Looking a little closer one will find that Floyd and Ramirez are serious regression candidates (Floyd benefited from strong defense a year ago, and Ramirez’s approach at the plate is reportedly awful), and there are some black holes in the lineup, primarily at second and third base and centerfield where Josh Fields and Brian Anderson have failed to live up to expectations, and where little can be expected from future utility man Christ Getz.  If Floyd does regress there are few pitchers the White Sox can rely on for quality innings beyond Danks and Mark Buerhle. The White Sox do have some upside but the safe bet is for them to struggle and for Ozzie Guillen to once again amaze us with his stupidity.

Team MVP: Carlos Quentin
Player to Watch: Alexie Ramirez

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Chicago Cubs (93-59, Division Champs)

Cubs fans have a right to complain about their fate in the playoffs last year as they were the best team in the National League over the course of the season but ran in to a hot Dodgers team.  While the Cubs’ off-season, at best, left them back where they finished last year, their talent level is still significantly higher than that of their competitors in the National League, particularly in the Central.  A middle of the lineup with Aramsi Ramirez, Govany Soto, Derek Lee and Alfonso Soriano is about as good as it gets.  And if Milton Bradley’s foray back into the outfield does not result in significant time on the DL, it will be even more formidable.  Despite some injury concerns, with Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden, the rotation, which also includes Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly, will be as good as any in the National League.  And as long as Kevin Gregg does not become the bullpen ace, they can expect solid relief pitching as well.

Team MVP: Geovany Soto
Player to Watch:  Milton Bradley

Milwaukee Brewers (84-78)

After trading for C.C. Sabathia last year the Brewers beat out the Mets and Phillies for the Wild Card, their first playoff appearance in 26 years.  This year the team essentially loses its best two pitchers in Sabathia and Ben Sheets, but still returns a formidable offense featuring Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, J.J. Hardy, Corey Hart and potentially Rickie Weeks.  The Brewers rotation will not set the world alight, but if Yovani Gallardo can step into the roll of an ace, then the rest of the rotation (Dave Bush, Manny Parra, Jeff Suppan) might be good enough for the team to push for a Wild Card spot.  One other thing that the Brewers have going for them is their impact talent on the farm; Mat Gamel, Angel Salome and Alcides Escobar  could all make major contributions this year.

Team MVP: Ryan Braun
Player to Watch: Mat Gamel

St. Louis Cardinals (83-79)

Any time you have Albert Pujols on your team you have a chance.  Combine with some career years from players like Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel and you have the reason for the Cardinals unexpected significance last year.  The team should see a significant boost to its rotation with the return of Chris Carpenter and a potentially healthy Adam Wainwright.  And Brett Wallace and Colby Rasmus are two impact bats waiting to be called up to help the big club at 3B and Centerfield, respectively; however, there just is not enough complimentary talent on this roster to see them truly competing for the Division or the Wild Card.

Team MVP: Albert Pujols
Player to Watch: Chris Carpenter

Cincinnati Reds (81-81)

Cincinnati has become somewhat of a vogue sleeper pick this year.  While there is a lot to like about the team’s development with Brandon Phillips along with young players such as Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Edison Volquez and Johnny Cueto, there are a few too many question marks about the team’s role players to trust their position as a contender.  Expect Aaron Harang to bounce back and for Bronson Arroyo and Micah Owings to fill out a strong rotation; however, the team is relying on too many at-bats from Willy Taveras, Jerry Hairston and Alex Gonzalez to be truly competitive.  In addition to this the team is being run by Dusty Baker who can be counted on to ruin the career of one of the team’s young starters before the All Star Break, and continue to rationalize Taveras’ .331 career OBP in the lead-off spot … because he’s fast.

Team MVP: Joey Votto
Player to Wach: Jay Bruce

Houston Astros (68-94)

Houston has been trading away their future for years now, both in trades for over the hill players and in failing to sign its draft picks. 2009 will be the year that the results of these failed policies will finally manifest themselves.  On paper the Astros should be competitive with premium talent like Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence and Roy Oswalt and a payroll that is consistently around $90 million; however, the complimentary talent is significantly below average and the farm system is non-existent.  While the Astros farm was no great shakes at the end of 2007, much of their talent was sent to Baltimore and Arizona for Miguel Tejada and Jose Valverde, respectively. It will likely be a long time before the Astros will be competing for anything other than top draft picks.

Team MVP: Lance Berkman
Player to Watch: Hunter Pence

Pittsburgh Pirates (64-98)

The Pirates have been possibly the worst MLB franchise for the past decade and a half, and while the team looks to be making some steps in the right direction, there is not enough talent on the major or minor league rosters to see them breaking their 16 year playoff drought any time soon.  Nate Mclouth and Ryan Doumit are the only major league regulars who could start on a contending team.  There was some hope for the pitching staff in 2008, but Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelany and Matt Capps all demonstrated that they were unable to fulfill their 2007 promise.  The hope for Pittsburgh’s future is their prospects, and they have some good ones in Pedro Alvares, Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabatta and Brad Lincoln.  While Andy Laroche has been an enigma for the past two years, putting up huge numbers in the minor leagues but being unable to transition his development to the majors, he has the potential to be a solid third baseman.

Team MVP: Ryan Doumit
Player to Watch: Andy Laroche

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Oakland Athletics (86-76 Division Champs)

With the addition of Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi and Orlando Cabrera the Athletics were able to significantly improve their offense which last year was built around a number of role players such as Travis Buck, Daric Barton and Jack Cust.  While Holliday’s fantasy statistics will dip from years past after leaving the freindly-confines of Colorado, he is still an elite hitter.  The question for the Athletics is with their extremely young pitching. The team looks to be starting the season with Dallas Braden, Sean Gallagher, Gio Gonzalez and Dana Eveland in the rotation, with Justin Duchscherer on the Disabled List and top prospects Brett Anderson and Tim Cahill waiting in the wings. While there is little room for upside with this group, the guess here is that their above average offense, league average starting pitching and strong bullpen will be enough to win the division.

Team MVP: Matt Holliday
Player to Watch: Brett Anderson

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (85-79)

The Angels were a true enigma last year when they outperformed their Pythagorean record by 12 wins. Conventional wisdom says that having a strong bullpen with K-Rod, Scott Shields and Jose Arredondo helped them to accomplish this feat. Despite having what will again look like a strong bullpen, the Angles will likely revert back closer to their expected win projections, particularly as their offense and starting rotation look to have taken a step back from a year ago given the loss of Mark Teixiera and elbow injury to Ervin Santana.

Team MVP: Vlad
Player to Watch: Brandon Wood

Seattle Mariners (76-86)

Seattle had such great designs for 2008 that they traded away their top prospect and future center fielder for Eric Bedard. Bedard failed to live up to his 2007 career year, and the offense floundered. As a result the Mariners will pick second overall this year. While the roster has some solid starting pitching and a good bullpen, not even the reintroduction of 1993 Ken Griffey Jr. will ignite this offense. Jose Vidro and Adrian Beltre are decent role players; however they are not middle of the order bats for a contending team.

Team MVP: Ichiro
Player to Watch: Felix Hernandez

Texas Rangers (73-89)

The Rangers are likely the team to watch in the division in the long term; however, they will again likely lack the necessary pitching to compete in a lackluster division. With Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Chris Davis the Rangers will have a great offense again. The team’s top prospects, including Neftali Feliz, Justin Smoak, Derek Holland and Max Ramirez, have the team built for 2010 and beyond.

Team MVP: Ian Kinsler
Player to Watch: Justin Smoak

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Los Angeles Dodgers (92-60, Division Champs)

Last year the Dodgers were galvanized by the acquisition of Manny Ramirez into winning the division.  Despite a drawn out negotiating period, Manny’s return to the team will help it to improve on its 84 wins of a year ago.  While there are some question marks about the depth of the pitching staff, the lineup should be markedly improved with a full year of Manny, and development by Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney and Russ Martin.  The rotation is anchored by 24-year-old Chad Billingsley but after that has a number of question marks: can Jason Schmidt return from injury? Can Clayton Kershaw improve upon his rookie performance? Can Hiroki Kuroda replicate his form despite having only 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings last year?  Can young pitchers like James McDonald and Scott Elbert make a significant contribution?  Including Randy Wolf the guess here is that the Dodgers will have enough pitching to capitalize on having the clear cut best offense in the division.

Team MVP: Manny
Player to Watch: Clayton Kershaw

Arizona Diamondbacks (89-63, Wild Card Champs)

After getting off to a scorching 20-7 start last year, Arizona finished the season at a paltry 62-73 clip as the teams offense came off the tracks.  Despite all of this the team was almost able to hold off the Dodgers to win the division.   Expect to see youngsters like Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Justin Upton, Miguel Montero and Conor Jackson take large steps forward.  Being anchored by All Stars Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the rotation has the potential be as strong as any in baseball.  There are some questions about the rotation’s depth including about Jon Garland’s continued viability as a starter after having a WHIP of 1.5 last year; however, he should have an easier go of it facing the offenses of the NL West rather than the AL.

Team MVP: Stephen Drew
Player to Watch: Chris Young

San Francisco Giants (80-82)

San Francisco’s projected improvement is based solely on its rotation as its offense will not likely show significant improvement over last year when it scored an anemic 640 runs, good for second last in all of baseball. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez are as good a reason to be optimistic about San Francisco’s ability to improve this year as anything.  Lincecum was a right-handed version of Johan Santana last year on his way to winning the Cy Young.  Along with the siging of Randy Johnson, the Giant’s young threesome should be able to overcome the fact that Barry Zito will be starting every fifth day.  As stated, San Francisco’s Achilles heal is the offense, when Bengie Molina is a middle of the order bat, you know your team is going to have problems.  The Giants do have some exciting young talent coming up through their system such as Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, Angel Villalona and Conor Gillaspie, but until their offense markedly improves the Giants will be unable to seriously contend.

Team MVP: Tim Lincecum
Player to Watch: Pablo Sandoval

Colorado Rockies (73-89)

Despite making it to the World Series in 2007, the Colorado Rockies’ promising core of talent has essentially evaporated as players have seriously regressed or been traded away due to contract concerns.  While expectations were likely a little unrealistic for 2008 after the team won 21 of 22 games to make the playoffs and then the World Series, injuries to Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Jeff Francis and Franklin Morales derailed their ability to defend the NL championship before the season really got going.  The Rockies will need to see breakthrough years by Tulowitzki, Chris Iannetta, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ian Stewart and Carlos Gonzalez, as well as rebound years by Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe and Francis.  If everything goes right, the Rockies could contend, but there are likely too many questions on both sides of the ball.

Team MVP: Troy Tulowitzki
Player to Watch: Ubaldo Jimenez

San Diego Padres (63-99)

San Diego picks third in this years draft, but expect them to pick even higher in 2010 as the Padres have the potential to be the worst team in baseball.  Beyond Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez the team appears to be lacking any type of impact position players or pitchers.  In addition, there is mass speculation that Peavy will not be finishing  the year  in Southern California.  The Padres do potentially have some more talent on their roster if Chris Young can regain his health or if Chase Headley and Kevin Kouzmanoff can live up to their potential; however, this still would not be enough to get  the Padres close to contention.

Team MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
Player to Watch: Jake Peavy

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What: United States vs. Mexico CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying, Final Round
When: Wednesday, 7 p.m.
Where: Columbus Crew Stadium, ESPN2, and a pub near you!

A short background: A crucial World Cup Qualifier between two rivals going in opposite directions, and easily the most anticipated match on U.S. soil in the last four years (tickets sold out in 90 minutes, and the 2,500 tickets going to Supporters Groups will create the largest U.S. organized SG section for a home National Team match). This is the first match of a ten-game round robin, at the end of which three CONCACAF teams will automatically qualify for the 2010 World Cup, while a fourth will go on to face a South American opponent.

Mexico is struggling. In the third round of qualifying they finished second to Honduras, and only advanced to the Hexagonal on goal differential. Swedish coach Sven-Goran Eriksson is under a lot of pressure to fix things, and soon. Starting things off by playing a solid American side in the cold of Columbus, Ohio will not make their turnaround an easy task.

The U.S., meanwhile, cruised through their earlier qualifying rounds - their only loss coming in a meaningless game at fellow-CONCACAF finalists Trinidad and Tobago. Since 2000, the Yanks are 8-0-2 against Mexico at home.

These are, no doubt, the top two teams in CONCACAF. But since 1991, the U.S. has gradually overtaken Mexico as the favorites to top the qualification group. Winning this game is crucial to that end. The U.S. must defend their home advantage while Mexico is in dire need of a positive result and the confidence it would bring. Really, anything other than a win will be considered a huge dissapointment for the U.S.

Why you need to watch: Does the United States have any other significant sports rivalries? Football? No. Baseball? Not really, nor is there really a US National Baseball team. Basketball? I guess every four years it’s fun to watch NBA players compete against the world, but when they lose to Argentina I usually just wish I hadn’t watched. I’ll admit I like watching the USA hockey team in the Olympics every four years, especially when they play Canada or Russia, but it’s not a sustained competition. And on that note, I’m sure that it used to be fun to face the USSR in the Olympics every two years, but we rarely competed against them in a popular team sport competition.

This is Mexico - our neighbors. (Playing Canada usually just feels like facing slightly less-athletic versions of ourselves.) It’s an intense rivalry on the field that often translates to equal animosity among opposing supporters in the stands. And Mexicans HATE (not enough emphasis there) the fact that the U.S. national team has, in terms of results, surpassed their own. They’re making voodoo dolls, people.

Where to watch: If you’re in the DC area, the official Shockey Brigade viewing party will be in the downstairs bar at Summer’s Restaurant in Arlington, unless the owner’s a douche and I feel like moving the party to the official AO party down the street at Kitty O’Shea’s. We’ll be there around 5 p.m. for some of the earlier European games as well as France-Argentina. Requests to relocate to Lucky Bar will be entertained.

If you’re in New York, your best options are Nevada Smith’s or the official NYC AO party at Jack Demsey’s.

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OK, I think that pretty much sums it up from A-Rod’s side of things.  Now let me interpret a little… 

 Of course he felt, pressure to succeed when he was in Texas, the man was making 1/4 of a freakin’ billion dollars.  Let me tell you something though, you do not sign a contract like that and expect to fly under the radar.  It’s just not the way it works.  So, you’re not buying any sympathy on that one, bub. And yes, you say you’re sorry, and you were stupid, and selfish and etc. etc.  The fact of the matter is though, he is only sorry that he got caught.  As cliche as that is to say, in this case it is absolutely true.  Still, at the same time we cannot crucify him for not coming clean earlier.  Any one of us put in his situation would have done the exact same thing he did.  Not to say we would have taken the drugs to begin with… But had we taken drugs, and not been caught, we would not just go around telling the likes of Katie Couric and the rest of the American public about it.  A-Rod was and is one of the greatest baseball players of not only his time, but of all time.  Are any of us naive enough to think that had he not been caught, he would have just volunteered the information to tarnish his image and legacy irrevocably?  It is silly to think that he would or should have done something like that…

…Lots of things bother me about this interview.  The main thing is that this is just A-Rod being A-Rod.  And by that I mean, this is the same guy we always see trying desperately to be liked.  His contrition is forced, and his apologies are barely believed.  And on top of it all, all of it masks the real reason he decided to give this interview: to try to save his legacy.  He argues 3 or 4 times during the interview as to why he should still be considered a great player.  He sites 1996 and 2007, saying they are his best years, and he was clean during them.  While it is debatable that these are his best years, he also assumes that we can take him at his word that he was clean in his Seattle days.  Personally, I would tend to think in 1996 he was clean, but who the hell knows anymore.  

As for his legacy… I really still think the man is one of the greatest of all time.  You want to put an asterisk next to his numbers, I suppose that’s your prerogative.  But the bottom line is then, you need to put one next to about 15-20 years worth of numbers.  Because everyone, pitchers and hitters alike, was using the stuff.  Some were just unlucky enough to get caught.  I’d like to believe guys like Albert Pujols are clean, but in my heart I know where there’s doubt, there’s probably a reason.  As for A-Rod, his 3 best years in terms of OPS were 2007, 2005 (while testing was in place), and 1996 (presumably before he started using).  As he campaigned during his interview, he has been quite consistent over his career.  And it can be argued that his increase in power while he was in Texas is as much a product of the park he played in as it was the substances he ingested.  If the man stopped playing baseball today, he would have my vote for the Hall of Fame.

That’s pretty much all the rambling I have in me for now.  I won’t get started on the whole “I didn’t know what drugs I was taking” thing (give me a break.  America is dumb, but we’re not that dumb).  And I don’t really wanna get into “WHO’S TO BLAME FOR THIS DEBACLE!?!”.  Because personally… it’s the players, the trainers, the managers and owners that looked the other way, the reporters who never reported it (and were in the locker room all the time), and the fans who watched in awe as balls soared out of stadiums at record paces.  We looked the other way, and we continue to look the other way in other sports (namely football).  So how can you blame a guy like A-Rod when he can get $250 mil and we continue to pay to watch him play.  Not that I condone it, but I can understand it, and I can certainly move on from it.  It has been a shitty couple of days for baseball, but at the same time, it’s not the end of the world.  I really think we need to stop the steroid witch hunts, and just move on.  At this point, we get it, lots of good players did the shit.  Now, I’d prefer to not know any more.  I’ll just let my imagination do the rest.

On a lighter note… With Pettite, Clemens, A-Rod, Sheffield, Giambi, Knoblauch?, David Justice?, Jeter???  … were there any Yankees that weren’t juicing?  Is Torre on roids?  What about George?  Is that why he was so ornery all the time?

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Anyone who was involved with baseball during the “steroids era”, including players, management, the Players Association and the baseball media, are to blame for the situation.  A-Rod’s three seasons worth of steroid usage, while bringing further unwanted attention to the situation, did not make or break the public perception of this continuous scandal.

While the ancillary parties were not the ones injecting themselves with banned substances their propensity to turn a blind-eye, and failure to enforce any reasonable interpretation of the laws of the United States or the rules of Major League Baseball is tantamount to collusion to the offense.

The Players Association has handled this situation poorly at every possible turn.  By shortsightedly following the interest of players in the immediate spotlight it has failed to look after the best interest of ALL of its constituents.  In a round table discussion on Sunday morning on MLBTV Harold Reynolds stated that the Players Association has always catered to the needs of its wealthiest members.  While this is not particularly surprising, Reynolds described a system where journeymen and players on the lower levels of the salary structure felt obligated and pressured to support the best interests of the games highest paid players.  The same type of confusion as to its mission led the Association to so vociferously fight against any type of regulation or implementation of rules outlawing the use of PEDs and has thus led the league into its current predicament.  The Union’s general failure was manifested again when Gene Orza reportedly attempted to cover up the exact number of guilty players in 2003 in order to thwart new testing policies (H/T: Shyster Ball.)  This continued behavior by the Major League Players Association has significantly hurt baseball players reputations and ability to honestly do their job.

This is not to say that Baseball or the Yankees as we know them are going to end as Jason Stark, Tim Kurkjian and the majority of New York’s sports media would have you belief.  The surprise and outrage of these ‘journalists’ is reactionary hypocrisy of the worst order.   It was these writers who failed to ask questions about the rates in which balls were flying out of parks in the late-1990s, it was these writers who never called for any substantive investigations or change and it was these writers who anointed A-Rod the savior to Barry Bonds’ tainted record without any evidence to support their claims.  To suggest that a 24 year old A-Rod was responsible for destroying baseball when men over a decade older than him had been taking advantage of the same loopholes for fifteen years is hyperbole to the extreme.

At the same time writers, such as Steve Hulkower, who flippantly try to dismiss A-Rod’s actions as being minor, unquantifiable and irrelevant, or as an example of aesthetic vanity are doing the issue an even greater injustice.  With A-Rod, the steroids are reportedly were present during three of his prime and thus relatively unquantifiable in comparison to Barry Bonds whose career was on a downward slope before he supposedly started juicing.  Just because we are unable to tell exactly how much A-Rod benefited, and how many home runs he would have hit without the juice, does not mean to say that there was no benefit.

With Bonds, the performance increase was so staggering relative to his decline, we have a better idea of the extent of how much he benefited.  Bonds had five of his six best years in terms of home run production following a four-year decline in his power production.  Would the slope of his decline have naturally trended down gently or would it have had a year of two of average (approximately 33 home runs/ year) or above-average production no one can say at this point.  What we can say is that if Bonds had averaged 33 home runs a year until he broke Hank Aaron’s record he would have had to play at that level until the age of 44 (next season).  Steroids, particularly HGH, have the reported ability to help a player recover from workouts and injuries, an affect of increased importance for a player looking to prolong his career.  Bonds’ body likely eventually broke down because of his steroids use, but the odds are that he would have broken down even sooner without it.

Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds are two of the games greatest players regardless of whether or not they took steroids.  One of Tim Kurkjian’s arguments in the past two days has been that voters have demonstrated that they will not vote for steroid users.  This incredibly small sample size essentially refers to Mark McGwire who was never going to be a sure thing first ballot Hall of Famer without allegations of steroids usage. While Rodriguez and Bonds have certainly sullied both the reputation of baseball and their own personal reputations, they will still go down as two of the best players of all time.  Steroids were relevant in the performance of both individuals but they could not have reached their relative levels of success without being two of the premier players in the game’s history.  Kurkjian may be right when he says that they will never make the Hall, but it would be a monumental shame.

Then again, if this had not happened, I probably wouldn’t be so relaxed about all of this.

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Okay he didn’t say that. But he might as well. And he should say he’s sorry, too. At this point, this is all Jeremy Shocking to me, and it just makes me heart Derek Jeter more (pleeeease don’t be on any steroid list).

Check out ESPN.com for the video and tune into Sportscenter at 6pm tonight for his interview with Peter Gammons, and check in here later for more angry reaction from baseball lovers.

[EDIT] Okay he said he’s sorry. I haven’t watched the full video yet. Also, this quote is amazing:

“Rodriguez also said of his 2007 interview with Katie Couric on ‘60 Minutes,’ when he denied ever using steroids, that ‘at the time, I wasn’t being truthful with myself. How could I be truthful with Katie Couric or CBS?’”

Whoever came up with that deserves a fuckin’ medal. Hey kids, A-Rod is here to say you can lie to others as long as you’re lying to yourself, because that’s the real tragedy.

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