Today’s post is the first of a six part division-by-division baseball preview, starting with the National League West. The NL West was disparaged last year as being one of the worst, but due to the division’s young talent look to see a leap in its overall performance as these players continue to improve.  As a result  I see the division producing this years National League Wild Card winner.

Los Angeles Dodgers (92-60, Division Champs)

Last year the Dodgers were galvanized by the acquisition of Manny Ramirez into winning the division.  Despite a drawn out negotiating period, Manny’s return to the team will help it to improve on its 84 wins of a year ago.  While there are some question marks about the depth of the pitching staff, the lineup should be markedly improved with a full year of Manny, and development by Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney and Russ Martin.  The rotation is anchored by 24-year-old Chad Billingsley but after that has a number of question marks: can Jason Schmidt return from injury? Can Clayton Kershaw improve upon his rookie performance? Can Hiroki Kuroda replicate his form despite having only 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings last year?  Can young pitchers like James McDonald and Scott Elbert make a significant contribution?  Including Randy Wolf the guess here is that the Dodgers will have enough pitching to capitalize on having the clear cut best offense in the division.

Team MVP: Manny
Player to Watch: Clayton Kershaw

Arizona Diamondbacks (89-63, Wild Card Champs)

After getting off to a scorching 20-7 start last year, Arizona finished the season at a paltry 62-73 clip as the teams offense came off the tracks.  Despite all of this the team was almost able to hold off the Dodgers to win the division.   Expect to see youngsters like Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Justin Upton, Miguel Montero and Conor Jackson take large steps forward.  Being anchored by All Stars Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the rotation has the potential be as strong as any in baseball.  There are some questions about the rotation’s depth including about Jon Garland’s continued viability as a starter after having a WHIP of 1.5 last year; however, he should have an easier go of it facing the offenses of the NL West rather than the AL.

Team MVP: Stephen Drew
Player to Watch: Chris Young

San Francisco Giants (80-82)

San Francisco’s projected improvement is based solely on its rotation as its offense will not likely show significant improvement over last year when it scored an anemic 640 runs, good for second last in all of baseball. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez are as good a reason to be optimistic about San Francisco’s ability to improve this year as anything.  Lincecum was a right-handed version of Johan Santana last year on his way to winning the Cy Young.  Along with the siging of Randy Johnson, the Giant’s young threesome should be able to overcome the fact that Barry Zito will be starting every fifth day.  As stated, San Francisco’s Achilles heal is the offense, when Bengie Molina is a middle of the order bat, you know your team is going to have problems.  The Giants do have some exciting young talent coming up through their system such as Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, Angel Villalona and Conor Gillaspie, but until their offense markedly improves the Giants will be unable to seriously contend.

Team MVP: Tim Lincecum
Player to Watch: Pablo Sandoval

Colorado Rockies (73-89)

Despite making it to the World Series in 2007, the Colorado Rockies’ promising core of talent has essentially evaporated as players have seriously regressed or been traded away due to contract concerns.  While expectations were likely a little unrealistic for 2008 after the team won 21 of 22 games to make the playoffs and then the World Series, injuries to Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Jeff Francis and Franklin Morales derailed their ability to defend the NL championship before the season really got going.  The Rockies will need to see breakthrough years by Tulowitzki, Chris Iannetta, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ian Stewart and Carlos Gonzalez, as well as rebound years by Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe and Francis.  If everything goes right, the Rockies could contend, but there are likely too many questions on both sides of the ball.

Team MVP: Troy Tulowitzki
Player to Watch: Ubaldo Jimenez

San Diego Padres (63-99)

San Diego picks third in this years draft, but expect them to pick even higher in 2010 as the Padres have the potential to be the worst team in baseball.  Beyond Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez the team appears to be lacking any type of impact position players or pitchers.  In addition, there is mass speculation that Peavy will not be finishing  the year  in Southern California.  The Padres do potentially have some more talent on their roster if Chris Young can regain his health or if Chase Headley and Kevin Kouzmanoff can live up to their potential; however, this still would not be enough to get  the Padres close to contention.

Team MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
Player to Watch: Jake Peavy

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Trying to decide who was to blame for the falling out between the Red Sox and Manny Ramirez is probably what it was like for my parents when my brother, sister and I would argue about doing the dishes. I’ve been accused of being gullible in the past about my analysis of all things Red Sox, but it really appears to be that Manny is primarily to blame for the disintegration of his standing in Boston. In the past, his actions appeared to be harmless (peeing in the green monster, high-fiving a fan, his dreadlocks, staring down home runs) his discretions this year appeared to take it one step further. Getting in to a fight with Kevin Youkilis in the dugout was unnecessary while the incident involving the team’s traveling secretary was reprehensible, indicative of someone who has been treated with kid gloves for too long, his public comments against the team were asking for trouble and his attempts to quit on the team appear to be more real than imagined.

This is not to say that the front office is blameless. Their habit of conducting these affairs in the media is both tired and unprofessional. The Red Sox have done a good job of evaluating their aging talent over the past five years to ensure that they cut players loose before their declines. Decisions made on Johnny Damon, Pedro Martinez and Nomar Garciaparra have saved the team millions of dollars and several games in the loss column where the Yankees would have just thrown around some more multi-year contracts (see Posada, Jorge). Through their successes on the field, the front office no longer needs to wage this PR battle every time a popular player is about to leave the team, and yet it is done anyway.

As it is, there is no way that Peter Gammons’ hit piece two days before the deadline was written without the front offices blessing. (A quick side note: the article demonstrates the downside to Gammons’ brilliance as a baseball writer. What makes him great is the love of the game that permeates from the page as you read, but when he writes something negative his emotion comes across as high-minded and preachy.) In addition, the front office is able to rely on the lower levels of the local media to eviscerate Manny’s reputation further to the general public. These hack writers, such as Gerry Callahan and Dan Shaughnessy, are more than happy to oblige as they have never warmed to Manny, primarily because he never played nice with the media, because he’s an easy target, and because he is black. Maybe Manny deserved to have his reputation trashed for essentially quitting on the team, but the front office should be cognizant of the eventual lowbrow form that its PR campaigns take on.

In baseball terms I’m not so sure that this trade is really that big a deal. Of course we got the obligatory stories on the Yankees’ celebrating when Manny was traded, but the Red Sox offense has always been built on its depth as much as it has on the two pillars in the middle. The secondary level of players in the lineup, like Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew, is what has really made the team’s offense stand out over the past five years. Its also worth noting that the Red Sox got an All Star caliber outfielder back for Manny, and just because Jason Bay has wallowed in obscurity for his entire career, does not take away from everything that he brings to the plate. I am also led to believe that his defense and base runner are an upgrade from Manny. While people are up in arms over the fact that the Red Sox had to give up two young players just to get ready of Manny, the fact is that the two players were given up in order to get a player like Jason Bay back in the deal. At the end of the season when Manny walked, there would have been no way that the team could have gotten Bay and his team friendly contract for Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen.

The Red Sox made the best of a bad situation at the trade deadline and if their plethora of underperforming players (Varitek, Ellsbury, Beckett, Okajima and Delcarman) can even come close to their expected levels of production, they will be in the drivers seat for one of the two playoff spots that will come out of the AL East. In Theo We Trust.

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Let’s start by talking about this picture taken from MLB.com today. Just look at the love in those eyes. And what’s better, the picture or the accompanying text below “LA’s skipper must figure out how best to ride his new slugger to postseason success”? Ahhh… 5th grade homophobic humor.

Anyway, this article got me thinking about what the contenders did to improve their teams this year. I’ll start by taking a look at the American League:

AL EAST
Tampa Bay Rays (1st place, 63-44)
Trades: None.
Analysis: They had a chance to get Jason Bay, but that seems to be as close as they got to making any moves. This shouldn’t be a surprise. It’s the first time they’ve been in a position to make the playoffs and they should be happy to be there - they’re a team built for the future. And regardless, in Baseball Prospectus’ postseason odds report, the Rays make the playoffs in 85% of one million simulations of the rest of the season. That makes it a sure thing, right?

Boston Red Sox (2nd place, 61-48, 3 GB)
Trades: Hahahahaha. Ahem. I mean… OF Manny Ramirez to Los Angeles (NL), OF Brandon Moss and RHP Craig Hansen to Pittsburgh for OF Jason Bay
Analysis: I don’t think the Red Sox should lose too much sleep over Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen. They’re good players, but not elite prospects. Manny, though… They lost their HR leader, his .398 OBP and his 68 RBIs at the beginning of August while they’re hanging onto the Wild Card lead. Bay is as much as they wanted to get back in any Manny trade and is a very good pickup, but suddenly the middle of that lineup doesn’t scare me quite as much. Ortiz and Bay are hitting a combined .195 against lefties this season. Helloooo, Damaso Marte…

New York Yankees (3rd place, 59-49, 4.5 GB)
Trades: RHP Ross Ohlendorf, OF Jose Tabata, RHP Jeff Karstens, RHP Dan McCutchen to Pittsburgh for OF Xavier Nady and LHP Damaso Marte
RHP Kyle Farnsworth to Detroit for C Ivan Rodriguez
Anaylysis: YES!! He’s gone he’s gone he’s gone he’s gone… Okay, Farnsworth was having a decent season, but this is awesome. The Yankees got Pudge and rid themselves that gun-toting, camo-underwear-loving dickhead who had the audacity to cry when he learned he was traded. Attention Mr. Farnsworth: WE ALL HATED YOU!! Seriously. The guy has given up 26 home runs in three seasons as a Yankee, and I’m pretty sure I’ve predicted five of them - one in person. That, my friends, shows a lack of confidence.
As for the Nady-Marte deal, the Yankees needed a right-handed bat and they got a decent one in Nady. Sure, he’s having a career year, but I’ll take him as an option in the outfield for a season and a half. Marte fills a huge vacancy in the bullpen as a left-handed reliever. They traded four prospects, but the Yankees farm system is full of “eh” pitchers right now, while Tabata has had personal issues this year. Good move. Two very good moves, actually.

AL CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox (1st place, 60-47)
Trades: RHP Nick Masset and INF Danny Richar for OF Ken Griffey Jr.
Analysis: The White Sox say they “definitely [are] going to have to hit more in the second half” to make the playoffs. For a team that is 3rd in the AL in runs scored per game, that tells me you don’t have a great team. Or you play in a crummy divisi– yeahhhhh. The worst current division leader in baseball (in my opionion) felt they had to do something. So they got Griffey. Adding Griffey to a lineup that already includes Jim Thome, Nick Swisher, Carlos Quentin, Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye doesn’t frighten me. But it can’t hurt, right?

Minnesota Twins (2nd place, 60-48, .5 GB)
Trades: None.
Anaylsis: The Twins continue to surpass expectations in the Central. They’ll soon get Liriano back, and I assume they didn’t have much to give up to get a bat. With a few good young players already in the majors, I can’t blame them for staying put.

Detroit Tigers (3rd place, 55-53, 5.5 GB)
Trades: C Ivan Rodriguez for RHP Kyle Farnsworth (hehe)
Analysis: The Tigers are in desperate need for what Joe Morgan would describe as “consistecy”. More so, they needed bullpen help. Farnsworth fills that need. He won’t single-handedly solve their pitching problems, but right now there aren’t too many people who can.

AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels (1st place, 68-40)
Trades: 1B Casey Kotchman and RHP Stephen Marek for 1B Mark Teixeira
Analysis: Damnnnnnnn. Kotchman is good but damnnnnnn. The best team in baseball went out and got one of the best first basemen in baseball. October’s gonna be tough for AL teams that don’t employ the rally monkey.

I’ll talk about Oakland in tomorrow’s NL recap when I focus more the Blanton trade. And no one cares about Texas, do they?

Finally, for a little preview of tomorrow’s NL recap, I’ll offer you this, the goofiest MLB profile picture ever. Keep in mind he’s also 6’ 11”. See you tomorrow. (Can’t wait!!!)

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After the Celtics won I had a decidedly more negative reaction than my friend Jose. The next day I was spared the scenes of celebration from another Boston championship by Tiger’s announcement that he’s out for the season. Well, spared until I saw an ESPN.com headline: “Simmons: For One Special Night, All Was Well in Beantown”.

Uggggh.

So in the smoky downstairs bar of Summer’s Restaurant, I wrote an angry, nonsensical anti-Boston rant on my blackberry over a beer and a cigarette (HatGuy would be proud).

The next day I read it and decided that my beer and nicotine-fueled rant would probably alienate me from my many pro-Boston friends, and that’d I’d rather not be a sore loser.

Regardless, I have to write something. So here are five reasons I hope Boston is done winning championships:

1 - Bill Belichick doesn’t deserve any more. He’s got three, and he’s a douchebag.

2 - Boston celebrations are getting worse. When the Sox won a few years ago, the city erupted, and Manny carried a clever sign. Maybe a little too clever… Anyway, when the Celtics won the other day, all we got was a little flower pot tipping? What is that??

3 - Fair-weather Boston fans. Okay, I’m a Yankees fan. Obviously there are a ton of fair-weather Yankees fans. But I can’t stand sitting in a bar in DC listening to some drunk girl in a Boston hat yell “Go Sawx” while she tries to mask her North Carolina accent in a flood of Guinness and a lack of r’s.

4 - Boston teams are just so fucking charming! First it was Cowboy Up, then the more ironic, “The Idiots” - oh how loveably un-loveable they were. The recent trend seems to be moving towards dancing. First we saw Papelbon dancing, and now Gino. Gino?? Why Gino? Why not any of the other idiots in that video. Or why that video at all??? Whatever the reason, I’m thankful that I only came across this phenomenon recently.

5 - Bill Simmons, are you finished yet? Okay, I understand that ESPN feels the need to have a columnist devoted to the greatness that is Boston sports and their fans. I’m really glad for three years we got to hear how gloriously miserable it was to love teams that always lost. Now that we get to hear how gloriously glorious victory is… well, it’s gotten old. What set me off was that headline: “Simmons: For One Special Night, All Was Well in Beantown“. ONE NIGHT?!?! I can think of at least 125 nights last year between the Sox and Patriots alone when things were awesome in Boston. Now throw in the Celtics, Harvard and BC football, New England Revolution, Boston Latin Girl’s Basketball and Somerville Chess Club, and you’ve got a lot of great nights.

Lastly, I’d like to thank Jeremy Shockey for his enduring teamsmanship during the Super Bowl that enabled the Giants to beat the Pats, and for his continued commitment to the NFL’s next dynasty.

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