Apparently there was a football season after Tom Brady got hurt in Week 1.  My understanding was that the NFL planned to suspend its operations until number 12 was ready to return.  I failed to notice my mistake until I tuned in for the Super Bowl this past weekend.

While I don’t have any significant analysis of what was a tremendous game, I”ll make one observation: Ben Roethlisberger deserves a lot of credit for his performance in the game.  I still think that Big Ben would struggle to make my  list of top-10 QBs in the league (Brady, P. Manning, Brees, Rivers, Palmer, Cutler, McNabb, Warner, Ryan, Romo), but his ability to keep plays alive, while unsustainable, was the major difference in the game.

Moving along to more pressing matters: the Patriots announced yesterday that Matt Cassel would be given the team’s franchise tag, guaranteeing him $14.6 million dollars; however, based on positive reports about Tom Brady’s health its doubtful that Cassel will be on the team at the start of next season, as Coach Belichick will not want over $29 million tied up in one position.

The maximum the Patriots can receive for Cassel is two first round picks, an amount that is considered relatively unrealistic, but there are a number of factors out there that suggest that a large return can be expected.  In January Mike Lombardi and Floyd Reese argued that due to the dearth of quality quarterbacks in the league the Patriots should expect a high first round pick and a number of other high picks.  Via a top-10 list Bar Stool Sports wrote that they expected a team to sign Cassel outright, giving up two first round picks in the process.

Maybe its irrational optimism, but I tend to agree with this analysis.  At the end of the day Quarterback is the most important position in the NFL and there are too many teams experiencing mediocre play.  While Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez could be great players, their contracts will likely have significantly more guaranteed money than Cassel’s eventual contract and the recent track record of top-10 QBs is not impressive (see Messrs Vick, Carr, Harrington, Leftwich, Smith and Young).

A list of NFL teams and their likely current starter show the amount of teams that could conceivably be interested in an upgrade:

1. Detroit - Dan Orlovsky?
2. St. Louis - Mark Bulger
3. Kansas City - Tyler Thigpen
10. San Francisco - Shaun Hill
13. Washington - Jason Campbell
15. Houston - Matt Schaub
17. NY Jets - Kellen Clemens (even though the Pats are not voluntarily sending Cassel to Jersey)
18. Chicago - Kyle Orton
19. Tampa Bay - Jeff Garcia/ Brian Griese
20. Detroit - I say again Dan Orlovsky, the guy who ran out the back of his end zone.
22. Minnesota - Tarvaris Jackson

While some of these higher draft picks are clearly wishful thinking I see Minnesota, Detroit and Washington as the three most likely suitors.  Assuming John Kitna is not returning, Detroit cannot go into the season with Orlovsky running the offense.  His defenders will say that Jason Campbell has had four different Offensive Coordinators in four years, but whatever the reason his lack of development calls into question his future potential.  Minnesota is my favorite to strike a deal as they are a decent QB away from being a serious contender in the NFC. Tarvaris Jackson was the difference between the Vikings and the Eagles in the playoffs this year.

Either way, I hope this Trojan nets us this Trojan.

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For the record if the Patriots go 18-0 and then loose to the Giants in the Super Bowl for the second straight year, I will buy Jose a car of his choice.

I get nothing in return if it doesn’t happen.

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The Patriots are not the only team in the AFC that have suffered catastrophic injury problems in the first couple of the weeks of the season. Shawn Merriman, Jeff Saturday, Vince Young, Bob Sanders, the Jacksonville Offensive Line and potentially Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates are all going to miss significant time from last year’s playoff teams. The results of these injuries mean two things: then NFC might be the better conference this year and Pittsburgh is on paper the best team in the AFC.

The result of this is that the Conference will be much more wide open than it has been for the past couple of years. No longer will New England and Indianapolis dominate everyone else while teams like Denver and Buffalo have the opportunity to make a run (lets be honest the Jets still aren’t going anywhere.)

Based on the injuries and some of the early lackluster performances (see: Indianapolis v. Minnesota, Indianapolis v. Chicago, Pittsburgh v. Cleveland, San Diego v. Carolina and Jacksonville v. Buffalo) the outcome of the AFC is an open book. Who knows, even Matt Cassel may have a Super Bowl run in him.

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Despite the opinion of some in the media that the Patriots would struggle to rebound from their Super Bowl letdown, before Sunday they were the odds on favorite to win the Vince Lombardi trophy, again. This standing at the top of the league was shattered half way into the fist quarter of yesterday’s game. The Patriots have yet to disclose Tom Brady’s injury other than to note that he will have season ending surgery on his left knee (Don’t expect a full explanation ever).

My initial reaction was to send a text to my brother saying “season’s over” but the more I think about it the more I like the Patriots chances to compete this year. That’s not to say that they will be as good as they would have with Tom Brady, but I think Matt Cassel has the potential to hold his own as an NFL quarterback based upon his time in the system, his obvious talent (Belichick never would have kept him around if he was completely useless), and the plethora of weapons surrounding him. As a Pats fan I’m devastated that we are going to miss a year of the greatest quarterback of all time’s prime, but I want to be on record as not having given up on this season.

Unless Cassel is completely lost on the field, even without Brady the Patriots are the best team in the AFC East. One reason for this is that they have genuine talent from top to bottom on their roster, another is that the other three teams in the division are not really that good, and finally their schedule is absurdly easy. Buffalo may take a step forward this year, but they do not have the depth to survive the inevitable injuries that come with a 16 game season. The Dolphins are rebuilding, and the Jets are grossly overrated, even St. Brett will not be able to overcome their mediocrity. While its an imperfect measure, if you take the top-10 players in The AFC East, sans Brady, six are still on the Patriots.

1. Randy Moss
2. Vince Wilfork
3. Richard Seymour
4. Adalius Thomsa
5. Kerry Rhodes
6. Logan Mankins
7. Marshaun Lynch
8. Jason Peters
9. Ty Warren
10. Brett Favre (funny irrelevant stat of the week: career QB rating for Brett Favre: 85.7/ career QB rating for Matt Cassel: 85.8)

Honorable Mention: Alan Faneca, Dan Koppen, Wes Welker, Lee Evans, Thomas Jones

In terms of the Super Bowl, I think the Brady injury catapults Dallas to favorites, with San Diego, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh close behind. Obviously the result of the Patriots’ season will be in large part decided by Matt Cassel’ level of competence, but the team is so talented as long as he can perform at a Chad Pennington/JP Losman level, they may be able to exploit some of the Colts or Chargers’ deficiencies in the playoffs.

The silver lining for this season is that it has the potential to be a supremely enjoyable team to cheer for. The problem with supporting an all time great team is that you expect the team to win every week, and by the end of each game all you are able to feel is relief (don’t worry I wont ask for your pity). My hope is that this team can start playing the no-respect / underdog card again while upsetting some teams and some expectations along the way.

My prediction: 10-6 AFC East Champs.

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